I like looking at the xG stats for games, it gives a better reference than merely shots on target or possession. I think for example when Southampton beat City 1-0 City had an expected goals of 3.5. Meaning they were all over them and on any other day they'd have won comfortably. It was a useful stat in explaining how Emery's 22 game unbeaten run was over achieving the performances. It also shows that in Arteta's games before lockdown Arsenal out performed their xG against. We conceded maybe 12 but the xG would have expected us to conceded about 20 given the chances we gave up. Since lockdown it has returned to a statistical normal with the two stats very similar. I like it because it gives a better indication of luck and longer term patterns you can expect. When Arsenal concede 12 but would have expected to concede 20 that is more about opponents finishing and shows there are still holes to patch up in a defence that for that period isn't getting punished.

One failing of xG is a chance such as Aubameyang's miss kick from Bellerin's cut back early on yesterday. It was clearly a very very good chance, but in terms of xG and the likelihood of it being a goal it ranks as a 0 (on a 0 to 1 scale with a penalty being up around 0.8) because Aubameyang didn't actually take a shot.

There will always be a difference in what fans want, what fans think we need and what the club does or can do. It has been that way ever since I've been a fan and is probably the same for all but 3 clubs in the league. Those 3 clubs can create their fantasy transfer window and often see it actually play out.

Since last summer we've already signed 2 players, Cédric and Mari, and Saliba is coming in. We've been particularly poor at moving players on and part of getting new players in is getting the old ones out. I saw this morning that Elneny will return to us as Besiktas don't want him. We have such a long list of players we don't want or don't need and can't get rid of.

There is a list of players who simply have to go. Then there is a list of players who we would sell if it meant they raised a decent fee to bring in better suited players. Then you're left with about 6-7 players.

I would agree that maybe 2 max incomings would be realistic, but if we cant sell anyone then I'd be surprised if we sign anyone else.

Paul Merson: “I don’t care if you’ve got Guardiola sitting on Mourinho’s lap, on top of Sir Alex Ferguson’s lap, on top of Arsène Wenger’s lap & all four of them are one manager; if you’ve got a defender who can’t pass the ball five yards to another defender, you are in trouble.”

Oh that UEFA comment on the City appeal outcome.
Just say what was probably really said down to the wire, as a more acceptable argument to overturn the appeal. City don't want to see Pep walk away, players that are in their prime possibly moving on. City won the Carabao Cup, are in the FA Cup semi against Arsenal upcoming, maybe with a win to the final. And in pole position to be in next season's CL, let alone another chance to take the PL title back. Therefore, it's in the best interests to overturn this appeal in favour of the noisy neighbours.
Today money walked and bullshite talked.
Sorry....

If you ask anyone on football to rank the defences of Arsenal, Chelsea and Spurs we’d come last in most fans ratings. However we have conceded fewer goals than both chelsea and spurs. So is it because the goals we concede tend to have a high proportion of mistakes?
Obviously we’re behind both in the table so that had a say in it. But Burnley are below us and conceded more but you wouldn’t hear much said about their calamitous defence, on the contrary Burnley are thought of as relatively tight and organised.

I suppose also you can win 3 games 3-2 or lose 3 games 2-0 and you’ve conceded the same amount of goals but the team who is losing will come under much more scrutiny as the defence cost the game

Absolutely no coincidence that Man U have got their mojo back by basing the team around pace and power. The front 3 are exceptionally quick, both full backs are quick.
In the spine of the team, maguire, Lindelof, matic, pogba, Fernandes all 6 foot plus powerful players.

Romeu on greenwood- very similar contact on the ankle as Aubameyang vs the palace player. Var looks at it nothing given. I can’t help but feel we’ve been on the rough end of the inconsistency of var far too frequently this season.

https://arseblog.com/2020/07/tactics-co ... y-blanket/

Interesting read on teams who press us vs teams who don't. Spurs didn't press us and we struggled for creativity, Arteta probably should have switched to a back 4 and put the extra man (willock or Saka) in central midfield to add some direct running. Almost certainly Arteta would have been cautious about doing this given it could have left Mustafi and Luiz 2 v 2 against Kane and Son

Southampton score very late equaliser v Man U.
Wonder what the inquest in the media will be after for the Man U defence. Didn’t win the header from the corner and then Lindelof never got goalside of his man who tapped it in. If it was Luiz and Mustafi they would be absolutely panned

It's worth looking at the league table. Liverpool have been phenomenal. City just about OK but quite poor by their standards. After that it's varying shades of mediocre. Whoever finishes third this season won't get to 70 points. Chelsea have lost eleven league games and are still 3rd. Eleven. Really poor campaigns by all the big clubs except for Liverpool.

Well the proof will be in the team for Liverpool. Obvious change is Tierney to go into the back 3 if he so good, and Saka to be left midfield. Why that wasn't the set up for the last game defies logic.

[/quote]
Well the proof will be in the team for Liverpool. Obvious change is Tierney to go into the back 3 if he so good, and Saka to be left midfield. Why that wasn't the set up for the last game defies logic.[/quote]
I think the logic was that same set up had won 4 of the last 5. Saka hasn’t played wing back for some time. He was mostly used as a traditional left back when he first broke through mid season.

I’m not sure what proof on Tierney’s ability the team sheet for the Liverpool game will give? Are you suggesting if Tierney is deployed in the back 3 it proves Tierney is rubbish and Arteta doesn’t fancy him as a left wing back? Or that if Tierney isn’t moved in to the back 3 it proves he can’t be up to all that because of the rubbish back 3 we already have? Both seem pretty illogical arguments to justify your view on Tierney

We came 5th with 70 points a few seasons back. Agree it is been a poor season for 5 of traditional big 6. But like the Leicester title winning season

Well the proof will be in the team for Liverpool. Obvious change is Tierney to go into the back 3 if he so good, and Saka to be left midfield. Why that wasn't the set up for the last game defies logic.[/quote]
I think the logic was that same set up had won 4 of the last 5. Saka hasn’t played wing back for some time. He was mostly used as a traditional left back when he first broke through mid season.

I’m not sure what proof on Tierney’s ability the team sheet for the Liverpool game will give? Are you suggesting if Tierney is deployed in the back 3 it proves Tierney is rubbish and Arteta doesn’t fancy him as a left wing back? Or that if Tierney isn’t moved in to the back 3 it proves he can’t be up to all that because of the rubbish back 3 we already have? Both seem pretty illogical arguments to justify your view on Tierney[/quote]
How about this. SK is a total failure at back 3. But wait we have a player who was sold to us as a LB and could play in a back 3 like he has done for Scotland. With me so far. So how about we play Tierney in a back 3. Well the only reason why Arteta wouldn't do that is because he does not trust him. How can I say that? Well there was a number of stories about us selling him to leicester. Arteta has since confirmed his faith in him but maybe there is truth in this. Arteta has done the same with Xhaka, Mustafi and others. Many of them should be on the way out.

Is Tierney indispensible at left midfield. Nope Saka is much better than him at LB and left midfield. Neither are great defenders. So if Arteta doesn't slip him into the back 3 it is becoming obvious Arteta does not think he is good enough in that position. He will probably survive at the club but he will need to improve substantially as a defender and crosser to give us a player capable at the highest level. he is like many others at the club - limited.

That was actually as recently as last year, the 2018/19 season. Emery’s first and only full season in charge.

Your right. Seems a long time ago. I had a look back and we came 5th on 75 points in the 2016/2017 season!

I think the logic was that same set up had won 4 of the last 5. Saka hasn’t played wing back for some time. He was mostly used as a traditional left back when he first broke through mid season.

I’m not sure what proof on Tierney’s ability the team sheet for the Liverpool game will give? Are you suggesting if Tierney is deployed in the back 3 it proves Tierney is rubbish and Arteta doesn’t fancy him as a left wing back? Or that if Tierney isn’t moved in to the back 3 it proves he can’t be up to all that because of the rubbish back 3 we already have? Both seem pretty illogical arguments to justify your view on Tierney[/quote]
How about this. SK is a total failure at back 3. But wait we have a player who was sold to us as a LB and could play in a back 3 like he has done for Scotland. With me so far. So how about we play Tierney in a back 3. Well the only reason why Arteta wouldn't do that is because he does not trust him. How can I say that? Well there was a number of stories about us selling him to leicester. Arteta has since confirmed his faith in him but maybe there is truth in this. Arteta has done the same with Xhaka, Mustafi and others. Many of them should be on the way out.

Is Tierney indispensible at left midfield. Nope Saka is much better than him at LB and left midfield. Neither are great defenders. So if Arteta doesn't slip him into the back 3 it is becoming obvious Arteta does not think he is good enough in that position. He will probably survive at the club but he will need to improve substantially as a defender and crosser to give us a player capable at the highest level. he is like many others at the club - limited.[/quote]

Complete gobbledygook, real authentic outlaw gibberish this

Doesn’t even make sense, If Arteta doesn’t take him out of his best position he must not rate him. Eh you what ! If Arteta isn’t playing Martinelli at centre half then he clearly can’t rate him.

To compound it all Tierney has just been voted our player for the month for June.

There is a lot of speculation, opinion and 'ifs' in that.
So you're saying if Arteta doesn't go with Tierney in a back 3 and Saka at LWB v Liverpool that is all the evidence you need to prove that a) Arteta doesn't rate Tierney and b) he isn't good enough for Arsenal?

I know Gaz from Oz will disagree with me, but I actually think that Tierney is a better left back than Saka because, in my opinion anyway, he is a better defender than Saka. I’m a bit of a traditionalist, so for me the most important quality for a full back is how good a defender he is? Attacking prowess is a valuable add on, most certainly. But I think less relevant than competence as a defender.

I’m not saying Tierney’s defending is remotely comparable to the likes of Sansom, Cole and Winterburn, let alone Lahm and Maldini. But seeing Saka at left back convinced me that will not become his established position in the long-term. He performed commendably there but in my view that was much more to do with his abilities going forward than his defending. At left back Saka’s defending was okay, but a long way from outstanding. I see any suggestion he was a brilliant defender as a gross exaggeration.

I also reckon Tierney is a good crosser of the ball. Not a left sided version of David Beckham but he consistently slings dangerous crosses into the box when he’s in a wide attacking position. I believe there’s room for both of them in the same team. Tierney as a left sided defender (full back) with Saka as a left sided attacker in front of him.

For me the bigger potentially negative issue regarding Tierney relates to his fitness more than his quality as a player. Gaz from Oz was always concerned about that from his injury record at Celtic. Looking at his initial season at Arsenal, I can understand why. To date he’s only made ten starts and come on a sub twice in the Premier League. So he’s played a dozen league matches. With only three league games left, that surely adds up to a disappointing first season at Arsenal regarding his injury record.

Marc Roca from Espanyol is supposedly a holding midfielder we're looking at. He had a release clause of 40m euros, but Espanyol have just been relegated so his price could be cut in half.

Whether we have money or not this is the sort of smart way we need to shop

There seem to be a few young spanish players we’re being linked to, is it just the presence of Arteta you wonder. I’m eternally dubious about transfer links, it will depend on the confirmation of Europe or not who are targets are. Crazy to think if we miss out on Europe and we’ve got the outstanding young defensive prospect in Europe arriving. Now that FFP is basically dead in the water, Stan can’t hide behind that as a reason not to inject some funds, maybe he’ll pump some money in.... I jest.

I think we can get something out of the Liverpool game. Home advantage and them starting to think of the holidays. City - well we have done it before and they do give up some chances.

The price for Ceballos is 23 million apparently being reported

That’s going to be a really tough call. He seems priced reasonably for his age but I’m not sure has shown enough generally whilst being promising in certain games.

It could be a good or bad piece of business considering what other ins and outs need to take place.

Judging on the last 5 games it is a good price, £23m for a 23 year old. Judged on his first half of the season you wouldn't pay it.
I suppose the question is do we need a CM 'like' Ceballos, someone who can progress play from deep - the answer is yes. So the next question is can we find someone who does that better than Ceballos for under £23m?

Also, if that is the price Real Madrid have set why should we pay what they want. Make a lower offer! Madrid will be just as desperate to raise funds for their next big signing

https://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football ... s-22357441

Some apparent good news. I also think 23 million fro Ceballos is worth it. Has shown flashes that he can be a good creative CM and a transfer might inject a bit of stability into his life at the club and improve him.

I think 23 million is a decent price, he’s a player who can improve I think too.

If we could get 100 million offloading Peripheral players like Özil, Guendouzi, Torreira and Maitland Niles. We could spend the 23 million and still have the right amount to re invest in other areas. (I still think we would need another midfield player on top of that personally.

If £23m really is the price Real Madrid want, and just as importantly he’ll be willing to join us, I’d pay it. I think winning the FA Cup is comfortably our best chance of getting into the Europa League if we somehow beat City on Saturday. I realise whoever wins the other semi will be firm favourites to beat us, but I’ve pretty well given up hope of qualifying via our league position. So I just don’t see us remaining as much of a preferred destination for new players as we used to be. That, along with the very slim (in my view) chances of finding anyone better for less than £23m, makes me say we should bite the bullet and pay it.

I know Ceballos isn’t great but I simply don’t think we’re in a position to pick and choose these days. A pretty good youngish player with the ability to become very good at a more than reasonable price. Especially if he still wants to join if we don’t qualify for Europe. Too good for a club that could well be declining (thanks Stan) to turn down in my opinion.

Great news that Man City have been exonerated and that FFP is effectively dead in the water. Now there’s nothing to stop Silent Stan from throwing a few of his billions at us.

Giddy times ahead for Gooners - woooohooooo!!!

Özil £0m - no one is paying us a fee for him. I doubt anyone is even lining up to take him on loan even if we paid the majority of his wages
Guendouzi - I'd hope we could get £40m but in today's market we might be lucky to get £25m
Torreira - Again we should get our £25m back but more likely in the £15m range
AMN - young, english, versatile - should be £25m easily, We'll probably be able to get £15m max
I'm at maybe half of the £100m you (and I) hope for, but think £55m odd might be more realistic.

5 subs will be allowed next season, if the PL so choose.

Transfer window will be 27 July to 5 October. Not clear if that aligns with Europe or whether it's just domestic .

That talk I've heard is that it will be adopted. Of the top two you'd think it would favour City rather than Liverpool in terms of squad quality, but I'm less fussed about it than I thought I might be. What I want to see is blood and concussion replacements, a temporary sub allowed so you can assess a player for concussion or injury before you send them back on. And bloody stop start game timers, this injury time bollocks is so old. Sub coming on? Stop the clock. Injury? Stop the clock. That might actually help the game. I'm not sure what the 5 subs rule is actually addressing other than a nod to the richer clubs amassing players into huge squads.

Seems a little pessimistic. We should get over 20 million for Torreira, 15 is just robbery. If Guendouzi is as amazing as Bernard thinks he should be over 30.

Might need to sell Kolasinac or Lacazette. Wish we could unload any of the infinite amount of duff centre backs we have accumulated

Uh oh rumours abound Tierney might start as left centre back with Kolasinac dropped and left in the back of his g wagon.

Gaz may be forced to fall back on his weird logic and admit Arteta rates him.

More to follow as this breaks ...

The last time we beat Liverpool was April 2015 4-1 at the Emirates, the teams that day
Arsenal: Ospina, Bellerin, Per, Kos, Monreal, Coq, Cazorla, Ramsey, Özil, Sanchez, Giroud
Liverpool: Mignolet, Can, Toure, Sakho, Henderson, Lucas, Allen, Moreno, Markovic, Coutinho, Sterling (Gerrard was suspended)

In the time since Arsenal have double the NET spend of Liverpool and only 1 player remains from Liverpool and 2 from Arsenal (Bellerin, Özil and Henderson)

The 9 players in Arsenal's team who left, left for combined fees of £35m plus whatever we deemed Sanchez was worth in the swap with Mkhitaryan

The 10 players in Liverpool's team who left, left for combined fees of £230m

Ouch!

The Coutinho transfer was absurd.

Liverpool clearly created another user to take control of Barca for the sole purpose of buying him. I’m surprised they didn’t sign Messi for a fiver. It’s cheating but we’ve all done it.

Martinez with his first big mistake, lucky not to be punished. dallied on a clerance and it hit Firminho and hit the post

It was the perfect storm for them. Barca had just had their nose massively put out of joint by PSG actually having the audacity to meet Neymar's absurd buy-out clause - and he decided to go. Barca felt they needed to make a statement to prove they were still top dogs and saw a Brazilian they fancied. Perfectly for Liverpool it was a brazilian who didn't fit in to their managers system. £130m euros later Liverpool had signed Allison and Van Dijk and won the two biggest trophies going

well, that had been coming. as easy as you like for liverpool. We keep clearing the ball but cant get out of our half

Nelsen is then in but chooses not to shoot.