Why will it show that?

Miliband had no such "baggage" and he'll have increased the vote share.
And wouldn't you say many of those who switched to UKIP were more concerned about Brexit than what Corbyn said in Ireland in 1980?

That doesn't mean national security not an issue. It means that with the same domestic policies and a leader not encumbered with worries over their record on national security, Labour might have won this time.

I think those who perceive Corbyn negatively - and for most of those who do so it is because of a generalised sense that he is anti-British and weak on terror - are those who once belonged to Labour's core constituency and not as you claim unlikely ever to vote Labour.

The national vote share is a total irrelevance until we have PR or a Presidential system.

Corbyn is pro-Brexit and always has been.

I'm agreeing with you that Corbyn was perceived as weak on national security by a section of the electorate. However, for many of the electorate who will vote Labour today in favour of their vision of the future of the UK; this was by far not the most important issue. That could be as much as 35% of the people who vote today.

In the two recent Labour leadership elections, the candidates opposing Corbyn were unable to inspire members of their own party, let alone look to be in a position to put together an appealing manifesto for this election. The right of the Labour party has nothing to offer.

With English and Scottish nationalism in play, Labour faced a very tough proposition to return to power regardless of who the leader was.The capture of Scotland by the SNP and the fact that the Conservatives are now seen by those who switched to UKIP in England as the ones most likely to deliver them the Brexit deal they want are huge impediments given there is at least a base 35% of the population Tory leaning in the first place.

Those who put national security at the top of their list when considering who to vote for, I would reckon a good fair number of them would not be traditional Labour voters. Not all, of course some Labour people have defected on that, I am sure you are correct, but it remains to be seen if this was a significant number put off by perceived weakness or the simple fact they preferred the Tory policies (if you can find one).

MORI final poll Tory 8 point lead. 44/36

Watch the key marginals though - they're all that really matter.

Fully agree. I'll be very surprised if May isn't still the Prime Minister after this election. But one thing the Tory Party is very good at, meaning ruthless, is getting rid of Party leaders who are electoral liabilities. Even if she wins this election, I think May's days are numbered.

Guardian

There's no way he can implement all the policies in the first five years and I believe that is what people are mistakenly expecting. He should have said which he would do in the first five years and which would follow and when.

My strong expectation from travelling the country and talking to campaigners is that Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband’s vote share in 2015 and may even match Tony Blair’s in 2005. But I also think that these extra voters are insufficiently distributed thanks to first past the post, and that the party will lose significant numbers of seats.

This is great if politics is an argument in the pub. But the blunt truth is that Labour would swap Ed Miliband’s 31 per cent for Gordon Brown’s 28 per cent in a heartbeat, as that 28 per cent delivered 40 Scottish Labour MPs and a hung parliament.

It feels to me that once again, Labour will have gained voters while moving further away from office.

****

Wise words from Stephen Bush in the New Statesman and this is exactly what I fear and why national share of the vote utterly irrelevant.

If Labour increases its share of the vote in a target marginal seat to the winning Tory candidate's 2015 + 1 vote this should be theoretically great unless the Tory also increases their share of the vote (exactly what looks like happening) in which case they have still lost a seat they must gain in order to form a government.

Equally if the Tories increase their share of the vote by more than Labour in a Labour held marginal then Labour can lose the seat even while performing better than 2015 in terms of vote share.

This is what I fear might happen tonight so that even if Labour increase their national vote on 2015 and even if they increase their vote in some marginals, they will still lose.

Which is why, for me, it is imperative to have a leader who can also appeal to waverers in marginals who are not angry, left-behind or any of that stuff but want a competent government with a social conscience who they trust to protect them.

Feeling good about election campaigns is total bollocks. There is no such thing as a good defeat to the Tories. When they win they implement their programme with plenty of U turns but also brutal consistency. You can feel good about the way in which you lost and proud of your campaign until you're blue in the face. Literally.

Is Mahrez a suitable replacement if Sanchez is sold (to City)? How much will Sanchez fetch if sold?
http://metro.co.uk/2017/06/08/arsenal-w ... t-6694578/

Indeed. But even more subtlely, lefties are genuinely put out by 'acts of terrorism', not because they care about the sods who die, but because it plays into the narrative.

knobber

Pics of long queues of young people at the polls in the Guardian....

http://www.wired.co.uk/article/election ... ive-winner

Why does he keep asking all these questions when he's supposedly blocked many of the people on the forum? So if they did bother replying, he wouldn't see it.

Just like my response to the ST email where I lasted a full day before renewing, there I was at 07:05 this morning putting my cross for Labour, just as I have at every election, national or local, that there’s been since I reached the age of majority.

It’s been an odd campaign though. Despite having all the press barons on her side and with all the advantages of a slick and well-funded organisation, May comes across as a stumbling mumbling and confused old biddy who flipped and flopped her way through what looked like a personal waking nightmare. As that poster summed up her and her campaign ‘Strong and Stable – My Arse’.

In contrast, old cold Jezza seemed to relish it all and positively grew in substance, stature and popularity. I’m pretty certain he hasn’t done enough and I still believe he’s a fatally flawed politician, but if it hadn’t been for that daft old bat Dianne Abbott’s asinine performances at crucial times, who knows what might have been possible.

Of course the terrorist incidents had an enormous influence but even then, I was really hoping that someone would properly open up the Brexit debate and we’d get a discourse going on the world of detail that’s been so blatantly and wilfully ignored. I really hoped we’d get some idea of the way forward and what we're in for rather than all this bollocks of ‘not showing our hand too early’.

To get an idea of just how deep in the *%^@ I believe we are over Brexit, read this if you will. It's a piece by Will Hutton from Sunday’s Observer. Hutton is a political economist, an occasional journalist and is currently Master of Hertford College, Oxford.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/03/britain-being-led-to-epic-act-self-harm-brexit

And weep.

That Hutton article is brilliant DHD. Brexit is a disaster that won't be fully recognised until it's far too late. There will be denial, accusations towards the remainers, but ultimately, we are shafted.

Anyway, I have been out and voted Labour and have also spent this week canvassing on the doorstep for our local party. I spent my lunch hour today at the local branch office helping out at the phone bank. I do think it's not going to be enough but, like you DHD, I feel Corbyn has had an excellent campaign and has grown as it has gone on. He has impressed me over the last few weeks. Whatever happens it has been great to see the young becoming engaged and enthused, this can only bode well for the future.

DHD - This is another great Brexit piece.
https://musealoudblog.wordpress.com/2017/06/06/brexit-traitors/

Brilliant, Darren, I don't think I have seen a more fickle commentator on anything than you. You make flip-flops look like DMs.

And I say this as one who thinks changing one's stance is often a good thing.

I voted Lib Dem by the way as anything else was throwing my vote away but off now to neighbouring constituency which is very narrowly held Labour marginal to help out. Reports I'm getting from my Lib Dem/Tory marginal btw is that it is really really close (the constituency not the national vote about which I haven't a clue...)

Still time for a bit of 'personation' Daz - I'm sure Niall could give you a few tips.

As they say over there:

"VOTE EARLY - VOTE OFTEN"

Might be needed, DHD, Labour only hold that seat by 600 votes...

Voted. May out! While we're at it, Wenger out as well!

Electing Trump was an unbeatable act of collective stupidity.

But the Brexit vote wasn't that far behind. And its been downhill from there!

Amen to that.

Oh, I won't deny it. Until next week, when I possibly will.

Am consistent on Brexit though.

Comey was one bad mutha today

Like the way he approached that. Why can't we have people like that in the UK who work for public office.

I'd take Mahrez but NOT to replace Sanchez, if we have to replace him then we need Mahrez and someone else as good as him before we even start sorting out other areas, then we have new coaches?, new DOF?, so far nothing apart from a free transfer.. good luck selling those Emirates cup tickets.

Funny how some reference how well run a club Arsenal are when in reality a lot of it would appear rank amatuer. When are you reinventing yourself Arsene?.

Nothing apart from a free transfer and a world record bid for one of the most sought after players in the world.

I mean, I understand it doesn't really matter unless we actually sign someone come August. But you can't really imply nothing is happening on the transfer front so far.

Why should we care about unsuccessful bids?, also I'm sure that world record bid (if it actually happened) was in part financed on the basis of selling Sanchez afterwards, obviously the club were never going to sell him until ST renewals were in, we all know exactly how Stan Kroenke and Arsene Wenger operate by now.

OH GOD OH GOD OH GOD PLEASE PLEASE LET ME HAVE BEEN WRONG AND THAT POLL BE RIGHT.

Yessss!!

Because it gives us an idea about the clubs ambition for the upcoming transfer window.

Oh man. I don't really believe it. Think stories will do better than that but still...

OH MY GOD I ALMOST DID A SEX WEE IN MY PANTS

Please let this happen I will f%$*ng piss myself

Oh man. I don't really believe it. Think tories will do better than that but still...

Polls have often been wrong. Time to calm down

Gerry might make an appearance :)

WTF in Scotland?

Terrifyingly encouraging exit polls.

May is toast. Sturgeon is damaged. Jezza is the coming man.

Looks like we'll be doing all this again quite soon.

Doesn't help with the shitpool of Brexit; quite the reverse in many ways.