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Post #291801  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 8:17 am 
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Decaf wrote:
Decaf wrote:

All the best to all in the UK for the elections.


Bear in mind that the world is watching and praying that you are not as foolish as the yanks. We have some faith regarding the Welsh, Irish and Scottish voters and some optimism regarding the English.


Tories are second to the SNP in Scotland. Far from turning things round there, it's got worse.

I consider myself a socialist but I don't even know what to hope for today. I think a Corbyn victory (not going to happen anyway) would be a disaster on it's own terms. They are simply not competent enough to deal with the inevitable political and economic crises and actually I don't trust them on national security - it's not just the Mail scaremongering. There are some proper nutters in that camp. Milne, McDonnell, Murray etc are neither effective politicians nor morally trustworthy. They will befriend the most bankrupt, corrupt and reactionary forces as long as they are "anti-West". They will support torturers, terrorists and dictators. They will appear on the TV channels of regimes that hang people for being gay. They count as supporters people who do not believe in parliamentary democracy. Sadly I think somebody like Andy Burnham or Yvette Cooper could have taken the decentish domestic policies in the manifesto Labour have and pushed May really close but we'll never know for sure. All Labour's popular politicians are on the moderate left of the party.

The problem is: you can be as "principled" as you like. If you don't win in places like Nuneaton and Harlow you're *%^@** and all you have is "purity". It';s not about going back to Blair - he's a busted flush, or "neo-liberalism" whatever that means these days. It's about rebuilding a coalition that can reconnect with different elements of the electorate. Labour had 50% of the vote in Harlow in 1997, last election it was on 30%. That's not down to one cause but one thing is for certain I would be very very surprised if Corbyn pushes it back up. So what are you left with? A warm glow as you remember the principled defeat while the Tories are privatising what's left of the NHS and closing down the Sure Start programme?


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Post #291802  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 8:17 am 
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I thought this silly season would be a bit mental, but didn’t expect this. There are now reports that we’ve offered 150m euro for Mbappe. I think Wenger may have completely lost it, not that I mind all that much. We’re long overdue some transfer craziness.


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Post #291803  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 8:22 am 
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Hazuki wrote:
Decaf wrote:
Let's hope Daz and the the bookies are wrong.

Daz has plenty of form. As for the bookies: #Leicester #brexit #CheetoBenito

The polls are close enough that a Labour victory is actually within the realm of possibility, which is encouraging. Fivethirtyeight had a pretty good summary of the different likely scenarios.


The polls ALL show a Tory lead.

The polls historically understate the Tory lead and overstate Labour.

All that matters are the marginals in our electoral system. It doesn't matter a tuppeny *%^@ if Labour majorities in Liverpool increase or the national share of the vote holds.

I hope to God I am wrong as well. Although I actually dread Corbyn and his cabal in power, best I can hope for is a hung parliament that forces May to resign although that would lead to Corbyn staying which I don't want either.

So basically I'm pretty *%^@** whatever happens.


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Post #291804  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 8:28 am 
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Hazuki wrote:
I thought this silly season would be a bit mental, but didn’t expect this. There are now reports that we’ve offered 150m euro for Mbappe. I think Wenger may have completely lost it, not that I mind all that much. We’re long overdue some transfer craziness.


Ha ha poor Arsene. Damned if he does...


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Post #291805  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 8:31 am 
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Daz wrote:
The polls ALL show a Tory lead.

The polls historically understate the Tory lead and overstate Labour.

All but one!

It also seems that many pollsters are trying to account for the fact that Tory leads are usually understadet by shifting the polls, which may actually be misleading. I wouldn't bet on the conservatives losing their majority, but at the same time it would be far from the biggest election upset we've seen.


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Post #291806  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 8:35 am 
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Hazuki wrote:
I thought this silly season would be a bit mental, but didn’t expect this. There are now reports that we’ve offered 150m euro for Mbappe. I think Wenger may have completely lost it, not that I mind all that much. We’re long overdue some transfer craziness.

Absolutely. Splash the cash, Wenger. There may yet be method in his madness.

"Time shall unfold what plaited cunning hides."

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Post #291807  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 8:37 am 
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Hazuki wrote:
Daz wrote:
The polls ALL show a Tory lead.

The polls historically understate the Tory lead and overstate Labour.

All but one!

It also seems that many pollsters are trying to account for the fact that Tory leads are usually understadet by shifting the polls, which may actually be misleading. I wouldn't bet on the conservatives losing their majority, but at the same time it would be far from the biggest election upset we've seen.


For me the only real wild card is these ghastly young people and Corbyn's grime fans. If they do turn out, it could shift things a bit but again it depends WHERE they turn out.

May has run a quite astonishingly bad campaign and Corbyn has been less bad than most feared and come close to decent on a couple of occasions. I still don't think that will be enough and I am pessimistic because I think when push comes to shove, people will still see Corbyn as untrustworthy on security and give May (wholly undeservedly) their backing.

Obviously I could be wrong - if I had Bernardian levels of certainty I'd be betting my house on the result. Nobody knows but my hunch is a boringly solid Tory majority and some good Labour MPs losing their seats - Cooper, Milliband and Lewis are all at risk.


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Post #291808  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 8:38 am 
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If the Conservatives lost their majority I think most people would agree it would be extremely funny.

Still don't think it's gonna happen though.


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Post #291809  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 8:46 am 
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One more thing. The polls are definitely IMPROVING for Labour, but you have to remember the point from which they started. Seventeen points behind. Seventeen. Polls narrow during election campaigns but the last YouGov poll shows the Tories still seven points ahead. For an incumbent government that has run an absolutely diabolical campaign that is a pretty good place to be.


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Post #291810  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 8:46 am 
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It feels to me as if Theresa May will end up benefiting from a situation she would never have wanted, namely the two terrorist attacks. She was looking wobbly before those atrocities, which completely overshadowed the election campaign. At a time of trouble it will be no surprise if voters look to the safe option of the Tories. Say what you want about Labour, but I have enjoyed a campaign about more social equality, and at last hearing a leader interested in the views of young people.

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Post #291811  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 8:50 am 
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Daz wrote:
If the Conservatives lost their majority I think most people would agree it would be extremely funny.

Still don't think it's gonna happen though.

There are so many swing voters these days it it impossible to tell. 11/2 hung parliament is where my money would go if I were a gambler.

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Post #291812  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 8:55 am 
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Did my bit. Locally I voted for Labour in diehard Tory Cuffley but I want a Tory win or the Brexit saga will go on and on forever.


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Post #291813  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 8:57 am 
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old man of hoy wrote:
It feels to me as if Theresa May will end up benefiting from a situation she would never have wanted, namely the two terrorist attacks. She was looking wobbly before those atrocities, which completely overshadowed the election campaign. At a time of trouble it will be no surprise if voters look to the safe option of the Tories. Say what you want about Labour, but I have enjoyed a campaign about more social equality, and at last hearing a leader interested in the views of young people.


I have definitely enjoyed a campaign which AT LAST has had a party say that for better services we need higher taxes. Not massively bothered about tuition fees but I also liked renationalisation of railways (think the others could have waited and they should have focused solely on that).

All good.

If those policies had been led by a team who could connect with a broader swathe of the electorate and were not led by two men who ARE profoundly dodgy when it comes to their knee-jerk anti-westernism, perceived anti-Britishness, and prior support for torturers and murderous terrorists we might now be in a better place.


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Post #291814  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 8:58 am 
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bubblechris wrote:
Did my bit. Locally I voted for Labour in diehard Tory Cuffley but I want a Tory win or the Brexit saga will go on and on forever.


Ha ha let's hope there many more as mental as you.


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Post #291815  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 9:00 am 
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I don’t know enough about specific policies in the UK to really contribute, but to me a lot of what Corbyn says seems to make a ton of sense. And I think there’s value in the simple fact that leftist ideas are being put forward. Many countries, including Sweden, have lost that. The left here has largely been a joke in recent years as everyone has scrambled to stop the rise in xenophobic rhetoric and parties, and stopped focusing on their own message.


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Post #291816  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 9:01 am 
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Decaf wrote:
Daz wrote:
If the Conservatives lost their majority I think most people would agree it would be extremely funny.

Still don't think it's gonna happen though.

There are so many swing voters these days it it impossible to tell. 11/2 hung parliament is where my money would go if I were a gambler.



Think we can have a decent stab though. UKIP vote will swing to Tories as I expect will many undecideds - as Hoy says because of the terrorism factor.

Think May's toast in the long run - the Tories have long memories and she has been unremittingly shite in this campaign.


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Post #291817  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 9:04 am 
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Can't remember which commentator said this but it was basically that the British people are often keen to elect a Labour government if there was only a credible one to elect.

Many Labour policies are great. I just don't believe they can be delivered by the hard left of the party.


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Post #291818  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 9:05 am 
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And adding to that, I actually miss the days of having a sane right as well. And by that I largely mean liberal ideas, not the batshit conservative nonsense of the right wing nationalists, like when they say we need to lower the abortion limit because foreigners are coming here to abort little girls as they only want boys. Would be nice to just hear them talking about lowering taxes, how we need to make it easier for small business and things like that.


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Post #291819  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 9:17 am 
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I'm voting labour. I flirted with the idea of voting Tory out of frustration and in protest at labours tactics, certain policies and stance and the way Corbyn has approached certain things.

However, The tories are utterly despicable and no matter how frustrating Corbyn is at least you know he's a good person.

The tories are an utter disease, their ludicrous deal they did with the gutter press around avoiding Leveson part two in exchange for basically murdoch and Dacre calling Corbyn a terrorist for 2 full months is as low as it gets.

Nope labour it is even though I know full well they will get trounced.


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Post #291820  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 9:19 am 
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Hazuki wrote:
And adding to that, I actually miss the days of having a sane right as well. And by that I largely mean liberal ideas, not the batshit conservative nonsense of the right wing nationalists, like when they say we need to lower the abortion limit because foreigners are coming here to abort little girls as they only want boys. Would be nice to just hear them talking about lowering taxes, how we need to make it easier for small business and things like that.


Very true


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Post #291821  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 9:20 am 
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old man of hoy wrote:
It feels to me as if Theresa May will end up benefiting from a situation she would never have wanted, namely the two terrorist attacks. She was looking wobbly before those atrocities, which completely overshadowed the election campaign. At a time of trouble it will be no surprise if voters look to the safe option of the Tories. Say what you want about Labour, but I have enjoyed a campaign about more social equality, and at last hearing a leader interested in the views of young people.

Maybe I'm too much of a cynic. But I question the assumption that politicians really care and aren't in fact secretly rejoicing when the *%^@ hits the fan in a way that is electorally beneficial ... especially conservative politicians who display no other signs of really caring.

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Post #291822  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 9:21 am 
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Top Gun, do you not trust this man?

https://twitter.com/Lord_Sugar/status/8 ... 8897382400


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Post #291823  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 9:26 am 
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Hazuki wrote:

:laughing7:

Wot a prat


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Post #291824  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 9:26 am 
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TOP GUN wrote:
I'm voting labour. I flirted with the idea of voting Tory out of frustration and in protest at labours tactics, certain policies and stance and the way Corbyn has approached certain things.

However, The tories are utterly despicable and no matter how frustrating Corbyn is at least you know he's a good person.

The tories are an utter disease, their ludicrous deal they did with the gutter press around avoiding Leveson part two in exchange for basically murdoch and Dacre calling Corbyn a terrorist for 2 full months is as low as it gets.

Nope labour it is even though I know full well they will get trounced.


Well done! Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour team have run an excellent and inspiring campaign. I'm still hoping for a shock result tonight, even if it looks unlikely.

Decaf, the Irish (in Ireland) cannot vote for Labour. They do not organise here.

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Post #291825  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 9:28 am 
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old man of hoy wrote:
At a time of trouble it will be no surprise if voters look to the safe option of the Tories.

Don't understand this reaction at all (though I know that's the way it plays across the water). It happened on their watch and May has been caught out rightly over her police cuts.

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Post #291826  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 9:35 am 
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TOP GUN wrote:
Hazuki wrote:

:laughing7:

Wot a prat

Wenger should start using that hashtag though.


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Post #291827  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 9:39 am 
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Let's get to the bottom of the key issue though folks. Totally nanny state

http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsbeat/article/4 ... sful-pilot

The rise in drug-related deaths at music festivals and nightclubs is a growing problem for policy makers, health authorities and events companies alike," says Shirley Cramer, the chief executive of RSPH.

However let's keep selling weapons to the Saudis and letting their loonie imans preach hate in the uk.


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Post #291828  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 9:40 am 
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Niall wrote:
TOP GUN wrote:
I'm voting labour. I flirted with the idea of voting Tory out of frustration and in protest at labours tactics, certain policies and stance and the way Corbyn has approached certain things.

However, The tories are utterly despicable and no matter how frustrating Corbyn is at least you know he's a good person.

The tories are an utter disease, their ludicrous deal they did with the gutter press around avoiding Leveson part two in exchange for basically murdoch and Dacre calling Corbyn a terrorist for 2 full months is as low as it gets.

Nope labour it is even though I know full well they will get trounced.


Well done! Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour team have run an excellent and inspiring campaign. I'm still hoping for a shock result tonight, even if it looks unlikely.

Decaf, the Irish (in Ireland) cannot vote for Labour. They do not organise here.
Thanks Niall. I didn't know that.

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Post #291829  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 9:40 am 
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Niall wrote:
old man of hoy wrote:
At a time of trouble it will be no surprise if voters look to the safe option of the Tories.

Don't understand this reaction at all (though I know that's the way it plays across the water). It happened on their watch and May has been caught out rightly over her police cuts.


Maybe it's because Corbyn appeared on platforms with terrorists - including one on the run - boasted about opposing every anti-terror measure put to parliament, said that he opposed all cuts to spending apart from to the military, described the shooting of bin Laden as a tragedy and has among his top advisers men like Milne who took the opportunity the day after 9/11 to attack the Americans, like McDonnell who hymned the bombs and bullets of IRA "martyrs" and like the Stalinist Andrew Murray who has expressed support for People's North Korea. Whose supporters stalk the internet with their Che Guevara avatars berating "Zionists" and "Red Tories".

You may want to argue that some of these positions are correct or more nuanced than presented - although I am fairly sceptical of such claims - but the idea that everything about Corbyn's dubious past and associates is simply a lie from the Tory press is sadly not true.


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Post #291830  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 9:43 am 
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Niall wrote:
old man of hoy wrote:
At a time of trouble it will be no surprise if voters look to the safe option of the Tories.

Don't understand this reaction at all (though I know that's the way it plays across the water). It happened on their watch and May has been caught out rightly over her police cuts.


Corbyns communication admittedly hasn't been good enough on the issue in my opinion and overrides the tories cuts and negligence. Terrorism clearly is a weak spot for Jezza.

His wishy washy comments on shoot to kill for example was daft and I'm more than aware he's a man of love more than hate.


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Post #291831  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 9:44 am 
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Decaf wrote:
old man of hoy wrote:
It feels to me as if Theresa May will end up benefiting from a situation she would never have wanted, namely the two terrorist attacks. She was looking wobbly before those atrocities, which completely overshadowed the election campaign. At a time of trouble it will be no surprise if voters look to the safe option of the Tories. Say what you want about Labour, but I have enjoyed a campaign about more social equality, and at last hearing a leader interested in the views of young people.

Maybe I'm too much of a cynic. But I question the assumption that politicians really care and aren't in fact secretly rejoicing when the *%^@ hits the fan in a way that is electorally beneficial ... especially conservative politicians who display no other signs of really caring.


Do you think it works the other way also - just for consistency sake - and that left wing "anti-imperialists" get a secret thrill from casualty figures from places like Iraq?


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Post #291832  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 9:48 am 
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TOP GUN wrote:
I'm more than aware he's a man of love more than hate.


Oh I wouldn't be so sure about that - very much depends on who the object of his attention is.


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Post #291833  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 9:48 am 
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Costa out of Chelsea possibly? The plot thickens.

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Post #291834  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 9:53 am 
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Imo Corbyn's policies are excellent in the main and if I thought he could fund it without bankrupting the country even more than it is I would have voted for him.

May got my vote for Brexit, the sooner it happens the better, but some of her policies like Health, Social Care and fox hunting I am completely oppposed to.


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Post #291835  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 9:58 am 
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bubblechris wrote:
Imo Corbyn's policies are excellent in the main and if I thought he could fund it without bankrupting the country even more than it is I would have voted for him.


Wait...I thought you did?


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Post #291836  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 10:08 am 
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TOP GUN wrote:
Niall wrote:
Don't understand this reaction at all (though I know that's the way it plays across the water). It happened on their watch and May has been caught out rightly over her police cuts.


Corbyns communication admittedly hasn't been good enough on the issue in my opinion and overrides the tories cuts and negligence. Terrorism clearly is a weak spot for Jezza.

His wishy washy comments on shoot to kill for example was daft and I'm more than aware he's a man of love more than hate.


I agree it was one of his weaker positions (along with the nukes - even though I agree with him) however "shoot to kill" should only be used when there is no alternative and lives are at risk.

Shoot to kill was used in the past to murder unarmed people who could have been arrested. I think Corbyn was on point on that one - I guess not many of the electorate would be aware of the shoot to kill policy implemented in Ireland and wouldn't really care about it at the minute given the terrible events over the weekend...It's very easy for a Tory PM to say shoot to kill w/o discussing the legalities around it during an election campaign.

In fact, Daz, I don't think your list of complaints had much impact on the campaign for the ordinary punter.

For me, May's police cuts and the insightful video of the police guy calling the govt liars highlighted the Tories poor record on security. It's unfortunate that some could feel in-clarity of communication overrides the actual harm of May's decision to continue cutting the police and the Tories negligence on the issue.

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Post #291837  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 10:12 am 
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Niall wrote:
In fact, Daz, I don't think your list of complaints had much impact on the campaign for the ordinary punter.


Totally disagree. I certainly think the idea that he is weak on national security has had a massive impact and will do so today which is why the Tories and the media will bang on about it until the last moment. Hopefully, the better elements of Labour's manifesto for which I think many are genuinely desperate for will prevail over that.


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Post #291838  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 10:17 am 
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Niall wrote:

Shoot to kill was used in the past to murder unarmed people who could have been arrested. I think Corbyn was on point on that one - I guess not many of the electorate would be aware of the shoot to kill policy implemented in Ireland...


That is obviously and understandably on your mind and was certainly on Corbyn's given his pretty unconditional support for the armed struggle over John Hume and the SDLP in favour of those who also didn't hesitate to shoot to kill from the republican side - or kidnap-and-torture to kill or bomb to kill for that matter.

But it showed total ineptitude to allow that thought to prevail when being asked about the entirely separate issue of Islamist terrorists. The moment he hesitated on shoot-to-kill for those in the streets wearing suicide belts or hacking random defenceless young women with knives or blowing up children at pop concerts, he ALLOWED that narrative to develop. That is why for me he is unfit to lead the Labour Party because his mind is still rooted in CND, Troops Out etc. It was a totally unnecessary gift to his opponents and one - partly due to his arrogance - he is prepared to make every time whatever the consequences for his party.


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Post #291839  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 10:22 am 
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Daz wrote:
Niall wrote:
In fact, Daz, I don't think your list of complaints had much impact on the campaign for the ordinary punter.


Totally disagree. I certainly think the idea that he is weak on national security has had a massive impact and will do so today which is why the Tories and the media will bang on about it until the last moment. Hopefully, the better elements of Labour's manifesto for which I think many are genuinely desperate for will prevail over that.


Well we'll see. If he polls higher than 2010 (29%) and 2015 (31%) then it will be clear his campaign on social equality (etc) was effective and that the national security issue (whilst I accept he was perceived as weak by a section of the electorate who possibly would never vote labour anyway) was not of great importance in the round.

More important factors Labour are battling against is the rise of nationalism in both England and Scotland imo - which often overrides social concerns.

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Post #291840  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 10:27 am 
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Niall wrote:
whilst I accept he was perceived as weak by a section of the electorate who possibly would never vote labour anyway


You're talking about Labour heartland voters, Niall!!!! Many of the people who perceive Corbyn as unpatriotic and weak on national security are precisely those who have historically voted Labour and have recently defected first to UKIP and now to the Tories.

Worryingly for Labour they are now vulnerable in the cities of the West Midlands and North East where they lost the metro mayor elections.


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