Every time I see SR I have the feeling he is player that makes a difference. Just a couple of little things in a game. Positioning, ability to get in a position that opens up the play, even if he doesn’t receive the pass. I feel he is a lucky player but there is no such thing - just a person who understands. It may be a fluke and he may not make it to be a very good player but I need to know. Play him and let me see.

I think Leno saved one against Southampton at home last season but as you said the rebound was put in

Yes, a bad day for Surrey fans. Edrich was a favourite of mine - heart of oak type.

Rich, I thought Arsenal comfortably deserved the win today. I watched the highlights on BBC One’s MOTD and they give the expected goals for the games they show. I know you have spoken positively about this statistic.

I was quite surprised that the expected goals for the game were 1.76 for Arsenal and 2.39 for Chelsea.

On that basis, rounding up and down to the nearest whole figure it should have been a 2-2 draw. But if anyone deserved to win, the expected goals suggest it was Chelsea.

True OM. Not the elegance of MCC or Tom Graveney but heart of oak is right. Terrific opener for club and country Go play Heart of Oak by Mark Knopfler and remember John Edrich.....top bloke.

Faith in Arteta & Arsenal restored

Looking forward to see Arteta stick with his decision, and retain Martinelli & Emile Smith Rowe for the next 2 matches. We need those 6 points.

And a big shout-out to Xhaka. Please keep bringing these forward moving tactics into your play. Credit where credit is due

It's now official.

With 1 being, the win is just one positive but we are in a probable relegation fight or 10, we are going to run the table and win the league.

Where are we after this win?

I've been on here bigging up Martinelli for a while. I'm not the only one on here that likes him but I have maintained that if we get Gabriel, Partey and Martinelli available at the same time that spine will be a season changer for us.

I still maintain if we get a decent partner. Not a world beater, just a decent, stable, reliable partner for Gabriel it would make a huge difference. The biggest need is a partner in the middle with Partey.

We aren't scoring goals but its the one part of our game I'm least worried about. Abua, Martinelli, Lacazette, Willian, Pépé, can all produce. I think with the right midfield, the goals will start coming at a reasonable rate.

I'll be listening to the pundits and such and see what they are all saying about us now. For me, its just one game. We have a long, arduous road back to respectability.

I wonder if we will see some permanent changes in the first team? More youth. And has Holding held down the position of being Gabriel's partner for the time being over Luiz? Lastly, you have to start Aubameyang, but can he and Martinelli form an effective partnership along with the rest?

https://www.bbc.com/sport/av/football/55456631

Petr Čech's reaction to Leno's save. And where SG forumites can kiss.

I agree that me must make this type of performance the norm. We must win against Brighton and WBA if we are not to waste the result. Let us hope Arteta has decided on the youth project

So, Leeds beat Burnley (very possible), we are still 15th?

I am happy for Leicester. They are on the cusp of being a 'big club'. They play like one but may be thought of as a club having its golden period for now but won't be able to sustain the way Liverpool, Arsenal and Man Utd have over the years. Remains to be seen. They lost Mahrez, Kante (and others) and have done well. It will remain to be seen how they are without Vardy.

Me too. When I saw on my phone it was 2-0 my first thought is that is must be score from the early 2000s popping up. No, its 26 December 2020.

As others have pointed out, its amazing how Xhaka looks a decent player when there is a bit of dynamism ahead of him.

Does Aubameyang come straight back in?

Hi Bernard, I do like the xG stat, particularly when it is put up against shots on target and possession. Worth remembering a penalty is automatically given an xG of about 0.78, ie a 78% chance of scoring, although both teams had one so it cancels itself out for this game.
The main area where xG is unreliable is if a really good chance is created but it doesn’t actually end up in a shot, a bit like the one Bellerin cut back to Martinelli but the pass wasn’t good and Martinelli had to stretch and couldn’t shoot. Had the easy ish pass been better and Martinelli got a shot it would have ranked very high, but instead it wouldn’t have ranked at all. Xhaka’s free kick and Saka’s goal would have ranked very low probability, also Elneny’s shot that hit the bar is probably quite low. I can think of a couple of Silva headers that would have ranked quite high for Chelsea.
I like xG but no stat will ever beat watching the full match and making your own assessment.

I'll be pleasantly surprised if Willian and Aubameyang aren't straight back into the side as soon as they're available.

Hi Rich. You mention possession and shots on target. Possession was Arsenal having 40% with Chelsea having 60%. Shots on target, apart from the result or goals scored obviously, was the only one that went in Arsenal’s favour. Arsenal had 7 on target and Chelsea had 3 on target. The other two, as I’m ignoring bookings, were attempts on goal (so not just the on target ones) with Arsenal having 15 and Chelsea having 19. Arsenal had 7 corners and Chelsea had 9.

I would have thought the main problem with expected goals (unless I’m completely wrong about the things that drive the stat, which I’ve never bothered looking up) is that how good a chance is surely has to be a subjective viewpoint to some extent? Sure, they may (as I don’t know) have stats about how often shots from any distance go in or miss, plus other similar things. But I still would have thought an element of subjectivity has to come into the decision about how good any chance was.

For just one of countless expamples, how likely a 25 yard shot against, say Runarsson or Neuer, goes in is presumably going to be very different. The weather or state of the pitch may come into the equation too. Do they really take stuff like that into account?

Aubameyang yes, Willian no and not till he has greatly improved or we have a use for him. Aubameyang because Martinelli is still not sharp enough. Two bad misses amongst others, two too many.

Ott even for you John who accuses me of insulting other members in the past.

Did you watch it again? I can see why Oliver gave it from that angle but VAR should have seen there was no contact and the Cherlsea players toe was already stuck in the pitch when Mari made it look like there was contact. Players just do not fall naturally with two feet together.

It was a dive.

I agree that Aubameyang could come back in, albeit Martinelli offers a lot more out of the area right now, but 2 bad misses?? When where these?

Should Arteta pick Willian to start and he does not do enough to impose, then Arteta needs to be brave and change up for the 2nd half. I would be disappointed to see him pick Willian ahead of Emile Smith Rowe for the 2 winnable games.

To my knowledge the xG is calculated exactly as you say, thousands of bits of data from years and years of the ball being in that position. It doesn’t take in to account if the chance falls to your goal why left back on his weak foot or your 30 goal a year striker. And doesn’t take in to account opposition or pitch. So yes it has its faults but is far better than shots on target. I’ve seen a lot of games where a team loses 3-0 but has double the shots on target, if you scuff a 30 yarder and it trickles to the gk who can stop it like a pass back it’s a shot on target.

As for the arsenal v Chelsea xG I suspect it was boosted in Chelsea’s favour from the last 5 minutes. Abraham’s goal was a tap in of sorts. And the penalty has a high xG, silva’s header would have added some, I’d guess those 3 probably accounted for a huge amount of Chelsea’s xG. Although I am surprised Arsenal’s wasn’t higher, the penalty is 0.78, the other goals would have been very low on the expected goal but we also had the Lacazette chance which was effectively a 1v1 with the gk, Elneny hitting the bar, holding’s follow up that Mendy saved, Martinelli’s shot from around the penalty spot that Mendy saved, Martinelli’s shin that squirmed wide. So I’m surprised it was as low as MOTD showed.

People won’t understand xG if for example team A hits the woodwork 6 times from long range shots but team B snatched the win with their only shot, a penalty. The xG would show that team B had the better chances because the penalty in itself will rank as a better chance of a goal than all those long range shots added together.

You could say the same about Tierney, who for me was on his way down before the contact from James in the back of his knee. Both were penalties

Linked with Julian Brandt from Dortmund. The time to get him was when Dortmund did a couple of years ago as he was a good price then around £18-20m. He’s 24, versatile and very quick. I like him and I think he improves us but perhaps not the position we need strengthening in. From what I’ve seen he tends to play wider. Feels like we need a couple of players who play right in the middle of the pitch to play with Partey in a 3 man midfield

Tough one but I'd say Martinelli should be rested after his long lay off with a bad knee injury. Certainly don't want a recurrence or he's out for 6 months plus. Leave Willian and Ceballos out though.

Yeah, we desperately need a quality driving force, playmaker, who can also run at defenses and midfields. Smith Rowe did well for us. Not the solution, more of a back up. Now I see how important it would have been to get Aouar. Ramsey would be great for us right now. Even Ox wouldn't be too bad. I'll repeat what I've been saying, until we buy someone specific for the position, put Saka in the middle with Partey.

What is going to be interesting is who Arteta leaves out. Aubameyang is an automatic. The question is Willian and Pépé? Pépé didn't start so that question was answered. My guess? Willian and Aubameyang will start producing with the right people behind them. If we start getting decent service to attackers making runs they are pretty confident the midfield with passes and fullbacks with crosses will provide them chances, we'll see a verry different Willian and a reinvigorated Aubameyang. Pépé is a different animal altogether. You can have the proper people in place and he may still not produce. He isn't a team player.

Watching a show now on NBC SN called 'Promoted: Leeds'.

Hated the old Leeds, happy for the new, more chastened Leeds. Hadn't known the NFL 49ers owner is connected to them and he went about it the right way.
https://soccer.nbcsports.com/2020/10/03 ... ownership/

From what I saw Rowe put in more of a shift in midfield with some good tackles and closing down. His attacking play was simple and he often passed too early occurring to conventional wisdom. but I also think that made him less predictable as defenders couldnt just wait to put him under pressure, force a pass and close on the target recipient. It added a fluidity to the attacking play that has been so often lacking. The whole team seemed to be less point to point and flowed effortlessly at times. Chelsea certainly helped as they got bent out of shape way too many times and remained intent on attacking.
Still a nice win to stop them going 2nd and also help our cause at the other end of the table.

Yep Tierney fell over. I'm surprised if anyone would even try to claim that he was clipped. Even Wright didn't defend it and he's more one eyed than most of us.

We're ok now that Xhaka and Elneny have found their shooting boots.

Saka appreciation post. At 19 he has carried us at times this year, showing the fight, versatility and quality many of his senior colleagues can’t muster. It’s obviously a lot easier to like or only see the positives in a home grown player but this lad is brilliant. I’m not certain we know his best position yet but it doesn’t seem to matter because he’s influencing games wherever he’s played. There is always rival fans willing to pitch Saka up against their young English players but I’m yet to see any young player, English or not, who can perform so well in such a variety of positions. LB, LWB, Left centre mid, left wing and ring wing.

There are two questions regarding Saka that aren't being talked about much if at all.
First, big clubs within England and possibly outside England are going to throw a huge amount of money at us for his services. How will The Arsenal react? Take the money and run to fund other buys?
Second, will Saka's head get turned by a Liverpool or City or even Man Utd or Chelsea? Or a Juve, Bayern Munich?
At the very least we'll have to redo his contract even if he wants to stay with us.

Yesterday doesn’t change anything in what the club need to do to build for the future.
Take the talented young players and add the better experienced quality around them. That gets you a ‘squad’ of about 12-14 players.
Leno, Tierney, Gabriel, Partey, Saka, Martinelli, Aubameyang all good first 11 players.
Add AMN, Smith-Rowe, Pépé as squad players and because you can’t sweep the entire squad under the carpet you also keep a few round to build the numbers such as Mari, Holding, Willock.
Then accept offers for Bellerin, Lacazette, Xhaka, chambers, Nketiah, Nelson
Then look to actively look to get rid of Runarsson, luiz, sokratis, kolasinac, Özil, Cédric, Elneny.
No idea where Willian fits.

Mustafi is in Rich-purgatory? No mention....

Stunned by that win yesterday.
Watching it unfold and to see us go 3 0 up and could have been more was incredible. To see the trio of Martinelli, Smith Rowe and Saka so fluid and pressing and pushing was a joy to behold.
Smith Rowe just keeps it simple but there is just something about him and what struck me was how strong he looks.
Martinelli......love this kid! Has balls in abundance and cant believe we got him for 6m!
These are the type of hungry young players we need to be looking at not the past it underwhelming Willian types we keep throwing money at.
Saka is a dream of a player. So young but so classy. These are who Arteta needs to build the team around going forward.
Would he have picked that team if Covid hadn't forced him to? I doubt it but sometimes fortune points you in a certain way and he must not ignore it.
I will be *%^@*** livid if we see Willian and Luiz back in the team on tuesday.
Reward good performances and stop playing the favourites.
Major decision and crossroads for Arteta on tuesday. His team selection will tell us a lot.
Dont *%^@ it up Mikel. Pick the right road.....

Liverpool is going to win the PL. City will eventually end up runner up. Tottenham or Leicester 3rd or 4th either way. Chelsea and Man Utd may be able to get into that top 4 with some luck but will probably round out the top 6.

I think its great seeing new faces among the top 7 or so places now but can see the season wearing down the clubs like Everton, Villa and and Soton. Not much between 2nd and 9th. 4 points with some clubs having a game in hand. Depending on that game in hand things change a bit.

Ah....an oversight as he’s off to Barcelona in January anyway....

For me it was the positions he took up. Other than Özil (we won’t go there) we don’t have players who can just pick those pockets of space between the lines of midfield and defence, it is just a natural sense of a central attacking player. Not only the positions he takes up but the ability to scan the play and take the ball on the half turn and move forward positively with passes and his movement.