Really? Where?

Question. Improbable as it may be but if we win the rest of our league games what are the chances we'll be champions?

95.356% or thereabouts.
Because Liverpool would have to win all of their games, or draw one and overtake our goal difference.

The 'if' is the bigger problem.

I'm seeing a lot of this, and I can see both sides of the argument. I can't help feeling a bit disappointed that we didn't impose ourselves more in the second half and resorted to time wasting.

On the other hand, I think City were better than us yesterday so what we did was pragmatic.

I’ve had both 5live and Talksport on all day today - long drive - and the talk or discussion points for all the guests and presenters was - should Arsenal have been more attacking? Now, they balanced it by saying it was also a defensive masterclass, but there wasn’t a peep about City and their inability to create anything against us again.

I can see the talk of Arsenal has been very balanced, my point is that in comparison to everyone pouring over and having an opinion on our set up and performance I’ve seen very, very little discussion on City. They played with lots of players in deep possession to negate our excellent high press but having worked hard to create the space the only space they found was with a centre back in the wide areas where you’d normally want your creative players. Has it been discussed that as the reigning treble winners and favourites for the title that City should have created far more, after all they are the ones 3rd in the table, and also dropped points at home to Liverpool, Chelsea and Spurs this season.

I agree with you on rotating some players in for Luton. Zinchenko and Partey really make sense. We will need both match fit and sharp for the run in. Tomiyasu in to give White a rest too.
Also, if possibly take a risk and give Saka a rest, he has been carrying a knock and I don’t think he was fully fit for the City game. Trossard and Martinelli are back, Jesus could play from the right.

Saliba, Gabriel, Rice, Ødegaard, Havertz seems to be able to go and go again without much sign of fatigue

The top of the Championship is as tight as the Prem. Ipswich currently top - including ex Arsenal youngster Harry Clarke playing every game at CB for Ipswich.

Arteta is the first premier league manager to go 4 games unbeaten in a season vs Klopp and Pep.

A lovely article to read, I imagine it will be enjoyed here: https://www.irishexaminer.com/sport/soc ... 63890.html

That's a great read; thanks bozboz.

I think there were a few glimpses of Partey finding his form when he came on. The chance that Trossard should have sent across to Martinelli at the end was all made because of Partey's composure deep in his own half and then a line breaking pass in to Ødegaard which took out 5-6 City players.

We've only had the midfield of Partey at the base with Rice and Ødegaard slightly in front once this season, the Community Shield. Jorginho has done a fine job stepping in particularly in the big games and he's certainly suited to games where he will get time on the ball to dictate proceedings, but Partey at his best is a better player

I hope more teams see what we did to City and believe they can do it as well. Their set up is 4 CB's across the back 4 and they tuck in the wide men (Foden and Silva in our game) meaning the space they created was out wide for their CB playing as full-backs. They pose very little threat in those 1v1 areas in the wide channels. Arsenal funneled back Saka and Jesus to defend them which allowed us to tuck both our full backs in to a very compact back 4. City's wide centre back didn't have the creativity or guile to beat a man so ended up lumping in hopeful crosses or recycling it back.

It wasn't until City made subs and made Doku and Grealish their wide players instructed to keep the width that they managed to get in behind us (Doku on a couple of times).

It is also interesting that Pep chose Foden and Silva to fill the wide forward roles, they are the best ball retainers for City in those roles. Doku and Alvarez have much higher turnover rates, they're more explosive maybe but they give it away more and Pep didn't want to be exposed on transitions. So to some extent Pep's approach was risk averse as well.

I think an area we should address in the summer is having another forward option with genuine pace. Only Martinelli gives us that at the moment.

I see we are being linked with Alexander Isak.

Out of the all the strikers we are being linked with I would probably say he’s the most logical from my perspective.

I don’t really see us going for a beanpole type target man as much as they keep getting linked and would envisage a more mobile type with lethal finishing. More of an Ian Wright than an Alan smith.

This summer could be interesting. Also think you could see 1or 2 very surprising exits possibly on the horizon.

Looking at the run ins it isn't always as easy at looking at the position of teams in the table to predict who has the easiest run. Someone down at the bottom will end up pulling a few results out towards the end and could be difficult opponents, particularly if they are at home. Teams like Spurs, Villa and Man U are chasing the top 4......and even a team like Chelsea can be good on their day as their results against the big teams have shown.

For all 3 title chasing teams I feel it will come down to a few key away games.
Ours are obvious and have been looming all season. Brighton (a), Spurs (a), Man U (a)
Liverpool - we need to look at their games at Man U (a), Everton (a), West ham (a), Villa (a)
City - its Brighton (a), Spurs (a)

The draw in Europe has suited Liverpool, they have easy enough teams to be able to rotate their squad until the final to some degree, whilst the potential of an Arsenal v Man City CL semi will take a lot out of both teams - I'd much rather face Real Madrid.

I'm hoping we can maintain our goal difference (+6 on Liverpool) as that effective extra point could be vital. Liverpool could put a dent in to it v Sheff Utd at home though.

I could see City going perfect to the end of the season which would mean we can't afford to drop a single point either. City are just relentless in the pressure they put on teams, fatigue and injuries will have to play a part for them as I don't really see more than 1-2 fixtures that they even have a chance of slipping up in.
Liverpool are different, they've given teams chances in games and still have injuries, most points won from losing positions shows the fire power and resilience they have but also shows that they let teams get a start quite often. Anfield in particular drags them through but I'm less sure they can keep doing that in some of the tougher away games they have

Agreed. Arteta and Edu put a high value on Prem experience and are willing to pay more for it. I like Isak and think he'd be a good addition - the price will be key though. I think Toney would also be a good addition but in a way that he'd still be a plan B and also I wouldn't want to spend more than £40m on him

I think with the lack of minutes he's got since he's been fit that Emile Smith Rowe will likely be a player that Arsenal look to move on in the summer, he'll be the one the fans won't want to see go. I think most fans have made their peace with Ramsdale being sold, and also players like Tierney, Nketiah, Nelsen.

Seems crazy that Rob Holding still hasn't made his premier league debut for Crystal Palace. I thought we should have got more than the £2m we did in the summer, but maybe that was a good amount seeing how little a bottom half team trust him.

See also Calum Chambers at Villa - barely any game time despite lots of injuries on Villa's defence over the season

I think you could see similar scenarios with Nelson and Nketiah and possibly Emile Smith Rowe.

They will be moved on and will find their true value. I honestly suspect Eddie would similarly struggle to get regular minutes for anyone outside the bottom 3

The trouble for Eddie is being born in the wrong era. Had he had his professional career in the 90's he might well have made more of it because teams played with 2 strikers, big man/little man - or the best played a striker and number 10 - but there were far more opportunities for a striker with Nketiah's skillset. Teams now tend to play 1 up top and that 1 needs to be far more than a penalty box finisher/poacher. Would a young Michael Owen in today's era had to have eventually found his way in to the team by playing on the wing for example?

Those teams lower down the league also play 1 up top and that 1 up top is often even more so a bit of a big man rather than the type of player Eddie is.

I will be very happy if he joins

I hear this but it’s a bit of a distraction, even if I picked an average ish striker from the noughties when 2 were being played up front all the time I’d say they have more to their game than Eddie. Say … Defoe ! Yes the king of bling ! Not even top level by any means but he was a decent finisher who would net spurs 15 or so goals a year. Thats just beyond Eddie no matter what formation. If you can’t do the business with martinelli, star boy and Ødegaard feeding you then you aren’t good enough.

Eddie Nketiah's last goal away from home in the Premier League came on New Year's Eve 2022. Says all you need to know really

With very few exceptions title winning sides have a part of their season where they underperform for a few games. A bad week. We had ours in December. Why? I still don't know why we lost to West Ham, Fulham, why?

Great stuff...thank you....took me back to a time and a place in my life

Let's see what Unai Emery pulls out of his hat, playing against City at home tomorrow. A draw again would be acceptable, but obviously would prefer a Villa win.

'71 FA Cup semi final 1st leg v Stoke. I didn't know Gordan Banks was in goal, that was a pleasant surprise seeing him after hearing so much about him. Second, Wilson had a great game. Third, we were lucky Stoke didn't put at least 3 or 4 past us.

Wow, we look a totally different (and better) side in the replay.

The commentator said at the time of this '73 FA Cup semi final v Sunderland we were 2nd in the league. Seems we were flirting with another double. Anyway, Blockley. I've heard his name reviled on here a few times now I know why. He was shocking. McNabb didn't have a good game either. They should have have had at least 4 goal s against us.

I agree Nketiah is not at Defoe's level from that era, I'm just saying in an era of 2 man striker partnerships he'd have more chance of a solid premier league career. Whereas if you went through the entire bottom half of the league currently and the type of striker they play as the lone front man Eddie might have more ability. finishers instinct etc but these clubs scrapping at the bottom aren't putting loads of chances on a plate they need a guy who can get them out, hold up the ball, run the channel, be strong etc
Those bottom half first choice strikers
Chelsea (!) Jackson
Fulham - Muniz
Bournemouth - Solanke
Palace - Mateta
Brentford - Toney
Everton - Calvert-Lewin/Beto
Forest - Awoniyi
Luton - Adebayo
Burnley - Fofana (loan from Chelsea)
Sheff Utd - McBurnie
All of those strikers apart from maybe Muniz are tall and physically strong. Muniz is still 6ft 1".

I'm not sure who in the prem would buy Nketiah to be their first choice striker. Teams that can create enough chances to accommodate him are at the top of the table and he's not good enough for that level. He's good enough for lower league sides but their structure wouldn't accommodate him as first choice

Spurs gk Vicario targeted again from a corner, inswinger, he has a touch of the De Gea’s in that he stays glued to his line and Zouma heads it in from 4 yards. Gk have to be decisive and brave and come and deal with those corners. I’m sure his tentative nature at corners will have been noted by Jover ahead of our game v them

Prem 22-23 wages to turnover ratio.

The top 3 worst teams in this respect have all been charged under profit and sustainability rules.

Worth keeping an eye on the clubs who are next down in that list, Villa, Wolves, Chelsea.

We've done remarkably well to get our wage bill down to 51% of turnover.

With the Prem seemingly flexing their muscles with points penalties on financial rulings, I think there could be some bargain players floating around in the summer for clubs that desperately need to sell

So basically from that list I don’t think he would likely start for any club except Sheffield. He can’t move to the championship on 100k a week so he has a very small window of clubs to look at. Basically one outside the top6 who want to bring him in as cover for a small fee 20-25 million but are happy to cover his wages for that amount. Not easy

We haven't went on a goal fest for a few matches now. Luton would be a good opportunity to work on the goal differential. Liverpool have an easy match and could put a real dent in it.

A win would be nice.

I know I'm going to sound negative but I listened to a podcast and I had to agree, with our schedule, we aren't going to win the league. Obviously I hope and pray I'm wrong but after the Luton game, Bournemouth is the only fairly easy game. Wolves just shades as a probable win away, but we'll have to come to play or its easily a draw. The rest are going to difficult. Some very, some moderately but difficult all the same.

We can't be getting ahead of ourselves and thinking of goal difference.

Having said that an early goal or two would be nice to settle the nerves.

Arteta on why we played like we did against City. Very well put!

"It’s not about being a completely different team. It’s like when you have a short blanket - sometimes you have to cover your chest here and your feet are there, but if you want to cover your feet then you have to tweak certain things sometimes."

Few rumours that none of Saka, Rice, Martinelli or Jesus start

ARS - Raya; White, Saliba, Gabriel, Zinchenko; Ødegaard, Partey, Smith Rowe; Nelson, Havertz, Trossard

Much more rotation than I expected. Big risk from Arteta hope it pays off

Just rotation, hopefully?

Substitutes
1Ramsdale
9Gabriel Jesus
11Martinelli
14Nketiah
15Kiwior
18Tomiyasu
20Jorginho
21Fábio Vieira
41Rice

Ref is Craig Pawson, I'm not a fan he let's pieces be kicked out of our players................

All those changes have thrown the timing off. First team would have at least 3 shots on goal by now. You sense a goal coming but we need shots on goal first.

Ødegaard!!!!!!!