Hi Hazuki,

Good to hear from you again.

I remain to be convinced by UK govt policy on this. I hope you are right, and I am wrong, but I do wonder if there's an element of policy being influenced by lobbyists for business, especially the insurance industry. Having a policy which asks people to make a choice (please stay at home where possible, don't go to pubs, clubs etc), as opposed to shutting down all but essential activity smacks a little of trying to avoid insurance companies and the govt having to make payouts for claims and ssp for example.

Also another point worth raising I think. Advice from experts is, no matter how sincere, obviously predicated on the factors at play at any given time. An important point that seems to be missing from this debate is the absolutely chronic underinvestment in the NHS that has been happening for a number of years. We've found massive amounts of money for Trident, for HS2, for bankers bailouts etc etc, we've allowed the super rich to take the p*ss in terms of not paying a fair share of taxes, but the NHS has had to make due with empty promises of £350m extra a week and putting up with the burden of social care because this govt (and previous to be fair) has failed to provide a policy for it. Factor in the numbers of EU staff that have gone home in the wake of Brexit, and of course expert advice is going to be influenced by those factors. An NHS with 30% more beds and staff is an entirely different beast to the one we currently have, and would have allowed the experts more room for manouevre.

With regard to the video, I have 3 questions and a couple of observations:

1. Who is he?
2. Why has he made such a video?
3. How did it go viral (sorry) so quickly?

(I've asked him those questions direct on twitter, but no response)

As for my observations; his theory assumes that our NHS (the bottle) is currently empty and sat there waiting for these Covid patients. In reality, that bottle is already at capacity, even before this situation. Secondly, if he was really wanting to be informative, using that bottle to illustrate NHS capacity means his bucket should have been at least the size of a bus to illustrate the potential number who could fall ill. (A moot point perhaps, until you consider my first two questions).

Anyway, time will obviously tell.

Sorry for being a bit ranty everybody.

Stay safe.

There was no effort to contain the spread at all. We had Cheltenham races, stereophonics gigs and mass gatherings all over the place. The pace of the spread should have been reduced to a halt. Wether they were trying to not infect everyone or not is irrelevant as isolation and recovery is the only thing that stops the numbers of deaths increasing from the virus.

Beat me to it

Hey stranger! Hope you're good. Would be good to see you back on here more frequently. I know we used to stay in touch via FB but I deleted my account a year or two back. Would be good to keep in touch.

There is still no attempt to curtail mass gatherings. Don't forget, it was the PL who made the decision to cancel the matches of their own volition. As you say, Cheltenham carried on regardless. In Ireland, the government said no mass gatherings over 100 indoors and 500 outdoors and have really ramped up the social distancing by overtly practicing it themselves - political tv shows with no audience and the contributors sitting 2 metres apart. That might be simplistic and look like gesturing but it is visually effective and gets the message across.

When people.ignored the advice and some pubs were still packed last weekend, the government closed all the pubs. That wasn't some.grand political gesture. The Vintners Federations in Ireland is a very powerful lobby group. It was a bloody tough call and put 50k people out of work overnight.

Closing schools is also a key part of social distancing. It has caused huge upheaval but, scientifically, is totally logical.

Finally, on the testing, the UK seems.to be doing the bare minimum. That on it's own keeps the reported numbers down.

I'm not saying for a minute that we are getting it right over here and the behaviour of some Irish people is quite frankly disgusting, but I think the UK government's approach has been reckless at best.

Yeah, can't argue with this. Mass gatherings of this kind should've probably been banned in most places a lot sooner than they were.

For starters you would have to have security to stop people from illegally entering the game. You can’t imagine Liverpool fans obeying a ban on spectators just for starters. Then medical staff referees etc etc - going to be well above the 500 number which is current in Aust and about to be reduced. I think the FA should just call it and stop the silly speculation. The number of ordinary businesses and people that will financially sink across the world is scary. Does anyone think this will be over in three months? I was offered some travel credits that had to be taken in 12 months and I rejected them. I don’t think travel overseas is viable for at least 2 years. We need a vaccine to be discovered and then tested.

Thanks John. It's been a depressing season for Arsenal, which decreased my interest in the forum a bit. Then it started getting interesting again after Arteta arrived, and then we quickly jumped to a stage where football suddenly feels more irrelevant than ever. Strange times for sure.

Again, I reiterate what I said to TG, I haven't followed the situation in the UK 100%. More importantly, I'm not claiming to be an expert on these matters, and the spread of the virus has proven to be extremely difficult to predict even for those who are experts. With that being said, I certainly feel you about the state of your health care! Sweden has the same problem, where too many years of bad policies and budget cuts has left us extremely vulnerable to a crisis like this. I'm hoping one good thing to come out of all of this is that we as a country set our priorities straight again.

With regards to the video; the guy is just a podiatrist, but I don't think the point is that he's some sort of authority figure who knows it all. He says himself we should be listening to the real experts (virologists and such), I think what he's doing is just trying to show in a simple way the thought process behind it all.

For me, the most important point illustrated in the video is this; if you take drastic measures like a complete lockdown (shutting down schools, non-essential work places etc) too soon, you risk just putting the whole thing off. It's impossible to keep that kind of lockdown up for several months at a time, meaning timing becomes hugely important. Otherwise what will happen is just that you will slow down the spread temporarily, and then when it's gone down and you open society up again it will start all over again. I think that part is being missed by many who are calling for different types of lockdowns.

If nothing else, the players wont agree to it and it goes against the social distancing guidelines. Wayne Rooney said last weekend that he was hugely uncomfortable playing a match at the moment for fear of catching it.

Yes this is what I was wanting to say, there’s clearly thinking behind the tactic that wasn’t Boris, the cabinet and the scientists sitting in a circle cackling. The only thing about the shut down ‘delay’ in theory is that it brings you closer, slightly, to a time where there might be a vaccine, which I’m sure like you I read is beginning human trials in the US.

Hi Haz,

I don't think people are missing the point about a potential spike when restrictions are lifted. It's all about slowing the spread as much as possible to buy time to resource the health service, flatten the curve, and hopefully give some time for an effective anti-virus treatment and vaccine to be developed.

To me it seems really counter-productive to bring in measures on mass gatherings but then leave the schools open, as kids will be the worst when it comes to hygiene and you can't operate a school with social distancing in place. This thing has changed the way we live.

Not sure about these two, to be honest. In Sweden we have about a million kids age 0-10. If we close all schools these children would need supervision, meaning parents would need to stay home - including doctors, nurses, police officers etc. Another risk is that in the cases where parents can't stay home for different reasons, the kids would be looked after by relatives, including grandparents who might be at risk. Children are not primarily the ones spreading the virus, so it's not even certain that clsoing the schools would have much of an effect.

As for the testing, there's an argument that once you have the kind of spread we see in a lot of countries, it becomes pointless to test every single possible case simply because you get no new information from it. All it would show is that we have one more person carrying the virus, without it being possible to determine when or where that person was infected. Let's not forget that extensive testing costs a lot of money and resources that might be better served elsewhere.

There are clearly dividing opinions about all of this, even among experts. But on the whole, I do think a lot of people are underestimating just how difficult and taxing these drastic measures are.

The government here has announced emergency measures to provide childcare to those working in the health sector - full details yet to be published but I expect select childcare facilities to be used. I work for a bank. Anyone who has a partner in the health sector can take leave to cover the childcare and on full pay. I expect this could be rolled out across the public sector. These are not perfect solutions but they attempt to stop the spread. BTW, not sure why you are saying that children are not primarily carrying the virus. The medical position on this is that they are vectors- unlikely to suffer the symptoms but can certainly.transmit it.

We have a lot of the severe measures in place here and it is ramping up. Believe me, people understand it. Some are feckless assholes who don't give a *%^@ and there is certainly a cohort who think it is being blown out of proportion, but by and large people are very worried about their loved ones and are supportive of the restrictions.

Just to clarify this – I’m not saying children aren’t carrying the viruses, but they are not the ones primarily spreading it, as they don’t move around in society as much as adults. They don’t go to pubs, they don’t have business meetings in different locations, they don’t travel around during the day etc. Small children especially spend most of their time in school or at home, with a lot less exposure to different people.

Anyway, they've announced in Sweden just now that they're recommending all upper secondary schools (age 16-19 roughly) to close tomorrow. Seems reasonable, considering these kids are fine by themselves and can study from home.

I'm actually expecting all schools to close sooner or later, but that one is a lot more complicated with a lot of following issues. That's why it's probably a good idea to wait until it's completely necessary.

Hi Dec.
You are very welcome.
I'm definitely on the way there.
Many thanks for your kind words.

Hi DHD.
Princess certainly is all those nice words.
Thank you for your kind words.

In case opposition fans still turn up, I guess. For example, I bet some Tottenham and Arsenal supporters would still turn up at the North London Derby even if they couldn’t get inside the ground.

My whole family is now quarantined due to me being unwell. The wife's work has told her she can't come in and the kids have been told not to come into school. My cough is getting worse and my temperature is still up and down. I'm told by my work I have to assume I have it and act accordingly due to the lack of testing.

It's the poor *%^@ers who work in bars, theatres, pubs, restaurants, retail that I'm gutted for. Until Johnson stops his semantic b%*&s%*^ and enforces closures they can't claim insurance.

Nice to see you back Haz. I was coming to Sweden over easter for a break which is now cancelled, obviously. Was heading to Stockholm then visiting someone in Gävle. Never been so was really looking forward to it.

Best wishes to you and the family Darren.

Self isolation is the right thing to do, Darren. We had a nonsense reaction from my workplace when a partner of one of my colleagues tested positive. Hopefully, it's not COVID 19. Take care of yourself and get well soon.

So sorry to hear that. Take care, and to your family too.

Ah. Interesting Times (to quote Terry Pratchett). The very best of wishes to you and yours for the coming period.

Tough break Darren, wish you a speedy recovery! Let me know if you reschedule for another time, I'd be happy to provide some recommendations for places to visit and such.

Wow! Best to err on the side of caution. We don't know enough of this virus to take chances. That said, it's not fun having to be quarantined.

Here's to you and your family's health.

Hi Darren,

Let's hope its just one of these other bugs that is going around at this time of year. Even if it is COVID-19 you and your family are relatively young and fit so it will probably be like a mild dose of the flu.

I wish you and your family all the best.

Are you isolating yourself from your family as well as all of you being in isolation? Is that even possible in an average house with shared bathrooms and toilets etc?

All the best to you and family Darren. Speedy recovery to them and all who is self isolating.

Good to see Haz back again.

Best wishes to Darren and his family.

Indeed it is. Welcome back Haz.

Hope it all goes okay Darren.

I just think it’s wrong to hand out trophies that haven’t been won. The league title is not a mathematical certainty for Liverpool and because of that I don’t see why they should be given it. For me, it isn’t right. I’m comfortable with City adding the 2020 League Cup to their honours list because they won it. Liverpool have not yet won the Premier League, so in my view they shouldn’t. Yeah they can go on about the bad luck they have suffered if the season doesn’t finish. But scousers enjoy that.

Regarding the human tragedy point, yes Hillsborough was a terrible event. But didn’t Liverpool fans kill close to forty Juventus fans at Heysel Stadium? That was also a tragedy for Juventus, generally accepted as caused by Liverpool supporters.

We haven’t heard from Kiwi for a while. I expect he is working on the vaccine. 1 fish head + a spoon of vegemite ( not marmite) + a generous helping of rum for the cook +

Three NBA players tested positive as well and are also asymptiomatic.

https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/51935585
Blaise Matuidi: Juventus midfielder test positive for coronavirus

The Simpsons has called it again. My working theory is that people from our future got into a wormhole or whatever and are communicating to us about what the future entails via the show.

Hi all, just had the chance for a quick catch up tonight. Before I go to sleep just want to wish Darren and family all the best for a speedy recovery. Get well soon and I hope everyone stays safe and well in the next few weeks/months as we go through these terrible times.

Also nice to see Ody and Haz return, would be great to see some of the old faces return.

Keep well, Niall

Mate, I hope you find the right one in the future. Better that you know now than get trapped in a nightmare relationship. Things could always be worse - you could have chosen Spurs when you were younger. Fair wait for a decent trophy over there and Mourinho as your current manager.

Just on a couple of Arsenal issues. With the season in the balance I would engage with Barcelona on Aubameyang sale, if Belerin needs an op I would get it for him now or if he requires just rest now is the time to do it until he recovers. Also I would be inviting players who were looking for a move to try and start sorting it out with where they want to go. Try and sign Saka to a contract. Plenty to do for the club.

I know that some buying clubs may be reluctant to negotiate, because of the uncertainty of football in general, but if you don't ask you will never know.

Hey there.

Firstly much love to all those having problems at the moment.

Well, this is all a bit crazy. I was in the supermarket the other day and this bloke was calmly walking through the store with a trolley rammed with toilet rolls when there were none on the shelf. I had a right go at him for hoarding and that people who couldn't buy in bulk were losing out to his selfishness. Felt a bit silly when he pointed out he was wearing a store uniform and was re-stocking the shelves...

Joking aside this hoarding is bonkers. I was reading an article about the psychology of it the other day which was quite interesting (I'll try and dig the link out). According to this article the hoarding started in Australia when a story went round that they imported most of their toilet rolls and wouldn't get more after the boarders were shut. People started panicking on that and the hoarding began (despite most of Australia's toilet roll being made in Australia!). News shows started showing the empty shelves and people in other countries followed the 'example' in a monkey see monkey do type scenario. The most interesting thing about the article was that the hoarding was originally being limited pretty much to English speaking countries due to the way news flows across boundries. They didn't mention pasta.

Things could be a lot worse here. My main worry has been how Jr would/will react to what is happening but fortunately he's being fine about it. The biggest problem I'm having is looking after him and my elderly mother, who lives on the other side of town. Not to mention a close friend with COPD who I shop for. Normally I rely on the buses but I've been avoiding them and walking where ever I need to go which has been a pain because my leg is completely buggered – I was due an op to sort it out before all this started but (rightly) that's not going to happen until goodness knows when so I just want to say how much I appreciate people with front garden walls that I can sit on every couple of hundred yards!

At the moment I'm not going out where possible, except for essentials. Without transport shopping is hard what with having to carry everything so I was fortunate that a friend was happy and able to give me a lift back from the supermarket so I could get a bigger shop than I tend to (I normally shop for a couple of days). Quite shocked at how empty the shelves are at the moment – and the rationing that's happening. Because I'm shopping for two houses it was difficult and I think at some point soon supermarkets need to find a way to allow for that but I've no idea how they could both do that and avoid it being abused.

One thing that all this has taught me is how often I touch my bloody face during the day! If you'd asked me a few weeks ago I'd have said maybe once or twice a day but when you start thinking about it every time you do it then it's mad how often it happens.

Anyway, stay safe, do what you can to help others, and if you're stuck at home read those books you never get round to.

Hugs to all x