Fixtures March 31st - Manchester City - Etihad Stadium - 3:30 Pm

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       Injuries                 Steve Gleiber



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Post #541521  Posted: Sat Jan 22, 2022 6:08 pm 
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Bernard wrote:
I didn’t watch the game but had a look at the stats for the Manchester United (MU) vs West Ham (WH) game, and BBC Sport (a site I trust and rate very highly) give this.

Possession
MU 57% - WH 43%

Shots
MU 18 - WH 6

Shots on target
MU 3 - WH 1

Corners
MU 3 - WH 3

Fouls
MU 9 - WH 8

Nothing material between the corners and fouls, but on the stuff that arguably give a better guide as to who deserved to win, to me it looks like MU.

As I said, I didn’t watch the match and MOTD will no doubt provide the expected goals stat, which the BBC Sports website didn’t. But unless MU’s 15 off target shots (18 in total less 3 on target) were from miles out or so wide and high they went nearer the nets at the Etihad than Old Trafford while WH’s 5 off target (6 in total less 1 on target) were terrible misses from a few yards out, with the same sort of principles applying to the on target shots, then I anticipate MU’s expected goal stat to be higher.

I honestly feel MU win so many games with late goals that it’s a positive characteristic that deserves respect, even if it’s annoying.

So regular that it can hardly be regarded as mere luck.

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Post #541522  Posted: Sat Jan 22, 2022 6:10 pm 
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Zed wrote:
Match resumed. Ref also had a communication equipment failure that got fixed.

Communicating with the betting agency ?


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Post #541523  Posted: Sat Jan 22, 2022 6:36 pm 
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long time gooner wrote:
Bernard wrote:
I honestly feel MU win so many games with late goals that it’s a positive characteristic that deserves respect, even if it’s annoying.

So regular that it can hardly be regarded as mere luck.

Exactly.


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Post #541524  Posted: Sat Jan 22, 2022 6:41 pm 
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warrior wrote:
Zed wrote:
Match resumed. Ref also had a communication equipment failure that got fixed.

Communicating with the betting agency ?

Here we go :laughing7:

Your telling me the staff at Stockley park where the VAR decisions are made don’t have what’s app and online betting apps on their phones….. purlease.


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Post #541525  Posted: Sat Jan 22, 2022 6:57 pm 
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TOP GUN wrote:
warrior wrote:
Communicating with the betting agency ?

Here we go :laughing7:

Your telling me the staff at Stockley park where the VAR decisions are made don’t have what’s app and online betting apps on their phones….. purlease.

:15laughter:
Ref has hotline to William Hill.

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Post #541526  Posted: Sat Jan 22, 2022 7:04 pm 
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long time gooner wrote:
So regular that it can hardly be regarded as mere luck.

I wouldn't say it's necessarily 'luck', but in terms of ways to win a game it's certainly not as sustainable over a long period of time compared to generally outplaying your opponents.


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Post #541527  Posted: Sat Jan 22, 2022 7:52 pm 
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Hazuki wrote:
long time gooner wrote:
Are you Rich in disguise? :15laughter:

You be the judge!

They have released the actual lines and he’s well inside. The angle of the freeze frame is always deceptive when seen like that. Defenders toe is quite a way behind Cavani’s shoulder.


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Post #541528  Posted: Sat Jan 22, 2022 8:08 pm 
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Hazuki wrote:
long time gooner wrote:
So regular that it can hardly be regarded as mere luck.

I wouldn't say it's necessarily 'luck', but in terms of ways to win a game it's certainly not as sustainable over a long period of time compared to generally outplaying your opponents.

It was only their second late winner in the league this year. Away to West Ham was the other, they’ve had 3 or so in the champions league to win or save a game.
But they also lost to an 89th minute goal 1-0 to Villa, conceded two late ones to Villa away to draw 2-2 and lost late to wolves at home 1-0.

The last minute wins stick in the mind more because of the annoyance of them.


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Post #541529  Posted: Sat Jan 22, 2022 8:31 pm 
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Rich wrote:
Hazuki wrote:
I wouldn't say it's necessarily 'luck', but in terms of ways to win a game it's certainly not as sustainable over a long period of time compared to generally outplaying your opponents.

It was only their second late winner in the league this year. Away to West Ham was the other, they’ve had 3 or so in the champions league to win or save a game.
But they also lost to an 89th minute goal 1-0 to Villa, conceded two late ones to Villa away to draw 2-2 and lost late to wolves at home 1-0.

The last minute wins stick in the mind more because of the annoyance of them.

With Man Utd, I think it's the fact that they have so many first halves where they are second best but still come out on top in the end. I view them as a team that is well short of winning the league but have enough good players to win plenty of games.

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Post #541530  Posted: Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:27 pm 
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Bernard wrote:
As I said, I didn’t watch the match and MOTD will no doubt provide the expected goals stat, which the BBC Sports website didn’t. But unless MU’s 15 off target shots (18 in total less 3 on target) were from miles out or so wide and high they went nearer the nets at the Etihad than Old Trafford while WH’s 5 off target (6 in total less 1 on target) were terrible misses from a few yards out, with the same sort of principles applying to the on target shots, then I anticipate MU’s expected goal stat to be higher.

MOTD did give the expected goals stat. It was 1.63 for Manchester United and 0.29 for West Ham. Along with the other stats I reported here earlier, I’m finding it hard to accept that Manchester United didn’t fully deserve their win today.


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Post #541531  Posted: Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:30 pm 
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Bernard wrote:
Bernard wrote:
As I said, I didn’t watch the match and MOTD will no doubt provide the expected goals stat, which the BBC Sports website didn’t. But unless MU’s 15 off target shots (18 in total less 3 on target) were from miles out or so wide and high they went nearer the nets at the Etihad than Old Trafford while WH’s 5 off target (6 in total less 1 on target) were terrible misses from a few yards out, with the same sort of principles applying to the on target shots, then I anticipate MU’s expected goal stat to be higher.

MOTD did give the expected goals stat. It was 1.69 for Manchester United and 0.29 for West Ham. Along with the other stats I reported here earlier, I’m finding it hard to accept that Manchester United didn’t fully deserve their win today.

You don’t always get what you deserve: if you did someone would have kicked Boris Johnson in the bollocks this week.

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Post #541532  Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2022 2:50 am 
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TOP GUN wrote:
Your telling me the staff at Stockley park where the VAR decisions are made don't have what's app and online betting apps on their phone's.. purlease.

I'll have you know the EPL has the finest referees that money can buy.


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Post #541533  Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2022 4:53 am 
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Had an exchange with a Man Utd supporting person I know. Whenever Rooney's dive is brought up (and as aside despite clear video evidence they never fully admit it), they bring up Pires and Pompey.


First, the Rooney dive is clear cut. The Pires penalty is not. Second, Rooney's dive came at the end of the game. Pires' at the 28th minute. I asked him "Would you take odds that, that Arsenal side wouldn't be able to equalize over the next 62 minutes? Really? Consider Leicester has down a goal too."

A lot of 'you never knows' and 'you can't predict football' and such. But really. When we scored, we took the foot off the gas against Portsmouth. They were not a threat. We played for a draw but could have turned it on at any time.

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Post #541534  Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2022 7:21 am 
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Strange one that Armstrong wasn’t sent off for his studs to the thigh foul on Laporte yesterday. It went to var but wasn’t given. Plenty of Arsenal fans online pointing out Nketiah was sent off for something similar, and City fans pointing out Stones was sent off v Villa for something similar too.
Of course var is still the subjective decision of a referee but you’d hope that with the benefit of time to fully review that there would be more consistency and that as a ref group they have agreed what constitutes a red.
There will be plenty saying ‘if that was Xhaka’ and they’re not wrong. I can’t recall any time we’ve had a var review for a possible red and they’ve decided to keep it at a yellow or less.


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Post #541535  Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2022 7:31 am 
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Bernard wrote:
Bernard wrote:
As I said, I didn’t watch the match and MOTD will no doubt provide the expected goals stat, which the BBC Sports website didn’t. But unless MU’s 15 off target shots (18 in total less 3 on target) were from miles out or so wide and high they went nearer the nets at the Etihad than Old Trafford while WH’s 5 off target (6 in total less 1 on target) were terrible misses from a few yards out, with the same sort of principles applying to the on target shots, then I anticipate MU’s expected goal stat to be higher.

MOTD did give the expected goals stat. It was 1.63 for Manchester United and 0.29 for West Ham. Along with the other stats I reported here earlier, I’m finding it hard to accept that Manchester United didn’t fully deserve their win today.

Given that Rashford’s goal, an open goal tap in, would account for at least 0.9 of that xG the rest of the game ls chances would seem quite even. I watched the highlights and it does seem to be quite even, nothing clear cut for either side. A header each from a corner and a couple of shots from range from Fred and bowen- but the highlights didn’t show a single save required by either gk.
Man U deserve it because they created the one certain goal moment but from what I’ve seen there wasn’t much between the teams and it goes down as a marginal game that Man U found a way to win rather than a dominant Man U up against a dogged defence and top performing gk and they finally found a way through at the death


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Post #541536  Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2022 7:37 am 
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This is the xG map of the Man U v West Ham game. Location of shot and size of circle shows the chances of that shot being a goal (bigger is better). Lots of very low chance shots from range for Man U then one single great chance in the last minute.


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Post #541537  Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2022 8:01 am 
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Rich wrote:
This is the xG map of the Man U v West Ham game. Location of shot and size of circle shows the chances of that shot being a goal (bigger is better). Lots of very low chance shots from range for Man U then one single great chance in the last minute.

I was fully persuaded by Bernard’s perspective until you posted that. Slam dunk.

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Post #541538  Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2022 8:07 am 
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Man Utd won. They pulled a last second goal out of their Arsenal. We can only control our results. We beat Burnley, we beat Tottenham when that match is rescheduled. We keep playing well. Other results become less important surprisingly.

I recall a frustrated Ferguson complaining other sides were bending over for us in the spring of 2002. I used to love hearing Man Utd fans at the pub in LA complain about how the opposition gives up early on us. As an aside, we made the same claim in Man Utd games as well...lol.

My guess is many opposition fans of our challengers would say Liverpool or Man City are 'letting us in the game' instead of we playing well.

We have Burnley, Woves, Brenford (at home), Watford, Leicester (at home), Villa. Tottenham in there somewhere or later. But this squad is more than capable of beating the aforementioned home or away. The effort I saw away at Liverpool would beat any of these sides if we take each seriously enough.

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Post #541539  Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2022 8:11 am 
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Tottenham are still in the FA cup. Man Utd are in both the FA cup and CL. This obviously works to our advantage. We are in a very good position. There are other variables that could affect things (transfers this month, injuries, red cards, etc.) but right now, we have the advantage schedule wise.

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Post #541540  Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2022 8:56 am 
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I hope Arteta has re-built the confidence of the team after so many massive disappointments
Lost to City despite playing so well
Lost to Championship side in FA Cup
Lost SF to Pool

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Post #541541  Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2022 9:00 am 
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Watching Everton and seeing their run of results just emphasises how bad that performance was to lose to them. Their only win in about 15.

I recall a similar one v Southampton when they beat us 4-0 in a run of 15 or so other winless games

Win today and we go 4th


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Post #541542  Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2022 9:43 am 
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Rich wrote:
Bernard wrote:
MOTD did give the expected goals stat. It was 1.63 for Manchester United and 0.29 for West Ham. Along with the other stats I reported here earlier, I’m finding it hard to accept that Manchester United didn’t fully deserve their win today.

Given that Rashford’s goal, an open goal tap in, would account for at least 0.9 of that xG the rest of the game ls chances would seem quite even. I watched the highlights and it does seem to be quite even, nothing clear cut for either side. A header each from a corner and a couple of shots from range from Fred and bowen- but the highlights didn’t show a single save required by either gk.
Man U deserve it because they created the one certain goal moment but from what I’ve seen there wasn’t much between the teams and it goes down as a marginal game that Man U found a way to win rather than a dominant Man U up against a dogged defence and top performing gk and they finally found a way through at the death

If the goal was 0.9 of the expected goals, without it their expected goals would have been 0.73. West Ham’s was 0.29. I suppose the best thing you can do to translate expected goals into actual goals is to take the expected figure to the nearest whole number, as there’s no such thing as a part goal in actual results. The closest whole number to 0.73 is 1, and the nearest whole number to 0.29 is 0. So would 1-0 still have been about right? I suppose the difference between the expected goals is 0.44 if your 0.9 for Rashford’s chance is right, which is nearer to 0 than 1.

But Rashford’s chance was created and therefore, as you say, Manchester United deserved the win. However, it does sound a dreary game even if they deserved to win it.


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Post #541543  Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2022 11:06 am 
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Saw a documentary that said Ian Brady, the Moors Murderer partner of Myra Hindley, had an IQ of 170. So what, you may say. What I found interesting was them revealing it was actually higher than that of Albert Einstein, who had an IQ of 160.


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Post #541544  Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2022 11:17 am 
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Rich wrote:
Watching Everton and seeing their run of results just emphasises how bad that performance was to lose to them. Their only win in about 15.

I recall a similar one v Southampton when they beat us 4-0 in a run of 15 or so other winless games

Win today and we go 4th


I see how well we played for large parts of the game against City and Liverpool and wonder how we lost to Man Utd.

What seems evident to me is when we come to play we can beat anyone below City and Liverpool and give those two a good run for their money. The turnaround is astounding. We couldn't beat eggs the first month.

I harp on it because I think we take it for granted just how much of a turnaround we are going through during this season. The work now is to maintain it and get the points.

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Post #541545  Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2022 12:14 pm 
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Rich wrote:
This is the xG map of the Man U v West Ham game. Location of shot and size of circle shows the chances of that shot being a goal (bigger is better). Lots of very low chance shots from range for Man U then one single great chance in the last minute.

Even without that big one it looks like very much in United's favour. Pretty much nothing for WHU.

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Post #541546  Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2022 1:16 pm 
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Looking at that bench we’re mighty close to having to call this game off. I wonder if the media will look at our bench and make any headlines showing that we are doing what we can to play games, probably putting out the least experienced bench and youngest bench in the league this season….


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Post #541547  Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2022 1:50 pm 
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Rich wrote:
Looking at that bench we’re mighty close to having to call this game off. I wonder if the media will look at our bench and make any headlines showing that we are doing what we can to play games, probably putting out the least experienced bench and youngest bench in the league this season….

Why would the media take such a view? We have no Covid cases. We spent more than any other PL club last summer. We have Torreira, Guendouzi, AMN, Saliba, Balogun, Bellerin and Mari out on loan. Our first choice midfield is missing because of fully justified suspensions. There is no hard luck story here.

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Post #541548  Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2022 2:10 pm 
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Dire...........


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Post #541549  Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2022 2:10 pm 
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That scum player Aaron Lennon still playing football, eh?

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Post #541550  Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2022 2:11 pm 
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:20hospitals:


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Post #541551  Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2022 2:11 pm 
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Might be a long afternoon for Vieira.

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Post #541552  Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2022 2:15 pm 
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sideways and backwards


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Post #541553  Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2022 2:18 pm 
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dec wrote:
Rich wrote:
Looking at that bench we’re mighty close to having to call this game off. I wonder if the media will look at our bench and make any headlines showing that we are doing what we can to play games, probably putting out the least experienced bench and youngest bench in the league this season….

Why would the media take such a view? We have no Covid cases. We spent more than any other PL club last summer. We have Torreira, Guendouzi, AMN, Saliba, Balogun, Bellerin and Mari out on loan. Our first choice midfield is missing because of fully justified suspensions. There is no hard luck story here.

I'm not talking about hard luck, I'm talking about the numerous references to how Arsenal should have been putting out youth team players and the similar number of references to Leeds doing just that against us.


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Post #541554  Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2022 2:18 pm 
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The Burnley subs look a bit of a worry. Not looking forward to when they come on.

Martin Atkinson
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Post #541555  Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2022 2:22 pm 
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Finally, some action from us. We need to show more urgency. Don't like the casual attitude.

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Post #541556  Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2022 2:24 pm 
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Good chance for Ødegaard, but I think it would've been ruled off for offside had it gone in


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Post #541557  Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2022 2:29 pm 
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Yawn

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Post #541558  Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2022 2:30 pm 
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We look a little bit off the pace physically, which isn't strange. All these players bar Holding played three days ago


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Post #541559  Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2022 2:33 pm 
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Can we put that Westwood yellow card in to the 'If Xhaka did that....' category?


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Post #541560  Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2022 2:33 pm 
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Westwood gets clean away with a tackle on Gabriel similar to the bone 4hat Gabriel his 2nd yellow against City.

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