No I think your totally right but it will be more down to budget rather than choice.

Without European football our transfer budget won’t be much more than 70 million a season. That doesn’t buy you much in this market and we need a new right back and striker soon probably plus sign a better back up keeper permanently

The only way out of it is if the club can generate 100 million by selling Torreira, Guendouzi, Nketiah and Xhaka himself to add to the existing budget a fund a wholesale restructure which is unlikely

Also in addition to this I think you’ll see Xhaka play for another manager as Arteta won’t be here in 2023 with the mood of our fans. A “name” will be required soon to placate the restless and then we simply start the cycle again

I was going to say 'the forum' but settings being what they are , ltg or another, when/what was the last big or 'biggish' club that was in a true relegation fight that people thought before the season were too big to go through that? I'm excluding Leeds. So, before their implosion. Forest? Newcastle? Was it Man Utd in the '70s? I am not knowledgeable of how "big" some of these clubs were considered. Leeds, yes. Newcastle? Hmm....yes? Anyone from the '80s?

This covers EPL only: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2039114-what-happened-to-the-10-biggest-clubs-relegated-from-the-premier-league

I would have loved to be around when Man Utd go relegated. I'd have wet my pants in joy (as I do now. )

We've done the first phase of our rebuilding of the squad by simply getting rid of players who no one else was going to pay any money for - Özil, Mustafi, Sokratis.
The second phase is getting fees for players who will still command them.
Players who just need to leave even for minimal fee: Kolasinac and Elneny
Players we need to work hard to sell this summer as they only have one year left on their deal: Lacazette, Nketiah, Chambers
Players who should be sold because they don't have a future with us: Gunedouzi, Torreira, Nelson
Players with protected length on contracts but should be sold for the right price (more bargaining power for us): Bellerin, Willock, AMN

I'm hesitant to add Xhaka - of course if someone offered £50m then we take it, but he seems like he'll stay around.

Realistically can we shift 11 players from the first team in 1 summer? (15 if we include Luiz and the 3 loan players). I've never seen a club turn over that many players. However, how many of those players can take us in to the top 4? How many of those 11 players would be considered undisputed 1st choice? - Only Bellerin. You might be able to make a case for a few of them as squad players in a top 4 side but that is the task that faces the club at the moment.

Even in a stagnated market we should be able to generate £100m easily from that group of players.

If we took a realistic view of not really being able to sell 11 players then you would prioritise the sales of Kolasinac, Elneny, Lacazette, Chambers. Try to get Nketiah to sign a new deal and get him out on loan - or sell him. Nelson, AMN, Willock could all have another season on loan. And I also can't see how we can keep Torreira and Guendouzi. That's 6 players sold with 4 on loan.

Either way it is a massive summer for the club and I can easily see us boosting our recruitment with a couple of loans again.
6 priority positions where we need to recruit
1. central midfielder
2. striker
3. creative midfielder
4. back up GK
5. back up left-back
6. right-back (if Bellerin leaves)

The rumour of the Nigerian interest is interesting. Would just be glad to be rid of the useless Americans.

Could this be the catalyst for much more funds to get top class players?

Arteta says Partey has a final test and is very close to being available for Benfica. Holding won't travel due to concussion protocols.

Rich, you talk of the need to prioritise the sale of Kolasinac even for a minimal fee. Then in exactly the same post you talk of the need to sign a back up left back. Isn’t that exactly what Kolasinac is?

Look, I’m no big fan of Kolasinac and won’t be in the slightest bit bothered if he leaves. But he’s a million miles off the worst left back I’ve seen play for Arsenal. Moreover he performed quite commendably in a more central position when we played a back three. Tierney is the first choice left back, full stop. That isn’t going to change.

So in talking of a back up to him, we’re not going to get anyone as good as him, which Kolasinac clearly isn’t. But Kolasinac is perfectly adequate, in my view, as Tierney’s back up. He’s not great, but he’s not bad. Why not keep him as the back up left back rather than get rid for a minimal fee when we’d probably have to spend as much on a replacement for him?

Manchester City 1996?

(Which they followed by getting relegated again to the third tier two seasons later).

Sorry, but you can't have it both ways - if Xhaka really is as bad as you claim, then our budget won't be a problem because it wouldn't cost much to get someone better than him. In reality, we're most likely looking at at least 30-40m to find someone who can compete with and possibly displace Xhaka. We spent 27m on Torreira and he wasn't good enough to do it, despite being a good player.

Your post doesn’t make sense. You say Torreira cost 27m and wasn’t good enough but say it wouldn’t cost much to replace him.

What do we know about likely up and coming transfers ? It’s likely we will have to prioritise the following....

We know we wanted aour and got in Ødegaard in that same position so that’s clearly a priority above all for Arteta.

Bellerins likely leaving so a right back

Back up keeper

Lacazette out of contract and balogun leaving so probably will need a new striker this summer

(AM,RB,GK,STR)

That’s your 4 players. Where’s the Xhaka replacement coming from we aren’t flush right now?

IF Xhaka is as bad as you say. I don't think he is, and that's why I think it'll cost some serious money to improve on him.

Ok a debate about the cost of transfers which are extortionate

I’m out

Not all transfers are like that though, Everton signed Allan and Doucoure for about 20m each. Now I don't think either is good enough to replace Xhaka, but again - if Xhaka is as bad as his detractors say then they would do if we were looking to improve. Plenty of talents in France and Spain that wouldn't cost a fortune either.

When we curse Arsenal for not retaining young players we rate (like Balogun if he leaves this summer) it is worth remembering every big club has the same problem

Jamal Musiala scored for Bayern last night, he's only 17. From 2011 to 2019 he was in Chelsea's academy. Man City couldn't keep Jadon Sancho, I think he left for about £7m, he's worth 10 times that now.

It is incredibly hard to keep all these players and give them the pathway to the first team at the right time. Even more so now as young english players seem more inclined to test themselves abroad and seem more interested in playing football than picking up big pay cheques.

With Saka and Smith-Rowe we're doing better than most

If we have aspirations of getting in the top 4 the type of midfielder we need will likely cost 35 million plus.

My point remains. If you are to sign 4 other players first and need to borrow money off the government to do so then we won’t have the budget. Xhaka is way down the list and also has little resale value due to mockery he’s made of himself. Quite simply there are fires all over the place we are putting out.

I don't think I rate Kolasinac as highly as you do. When he first came he looked quick and strong. Now he always looks like a weak link with a mistake in him, his passing has gone way downhil, in the games I've seen he was slow and ponderous and adding nothing to the attack and caused me concern in defence.
So getting rid of him and buying a 'back up left back' may seem like a sideways move - but lets also consider he's 27 and on £100k a week. This summer he has 1 year left on his contract. My view is we have two decisions.
1) get him back and use him as a back-up left back for a year and lose him for free (total cost minus £5m wages and any lost transfer fee) and in 1 year we need to sign another left back, or
2) sell him now and buy a young home-grown left back to be back up to Tierney. For example Mitchell at Crystal Palace who is free at the end of this season and whose wages would be half that of Kolasinac (total cost £2.5m in wages PLUS any sale we get from Kolasinac) and we have a 21 year old english left back who immediately has a value of £5-10m on our books
Is Mitchell any worse than Kolasinac?
Going with option 2 solves a lot more long term problems for the club. Option 1 just pushes those problems to next year.
Of course it is easy for fans to say sell X and buy Y, but these are the strategic moves we need to be making to consider pushing for to improve the longer term future of the club.

Didn't know City were regarded that big in '96. Ian Wright's son played for them I recall.

I agree that Xhaka is lower down the priority list to replace. We're really short of central mids when you consider: Ceballos isn't our player, Elneny needs to leave, Torreira and Guendouzi are not in favour and likely to leave, and Willock probably isn't going to make it with us.
That only leaves Partey and Xhaka. If you get rid of all of the players above then we need to be buying 2 central mids and keeping Xhaka just to have good numbers to see us through a season.

It’s a poverty of choice really. Ceballos is the only one remotely good enough but if he starts he seems dead on his feet after the 60th minute.

The “Arteta must love Xhaka because he keeps playing him instead of all our other brilliant midfielders” line doesn’t hold too much water with me

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_M ... C._seasons
For 20 years between 1982-2002 (ish) City were a bit of a yo-yo club, with 5 promotions and 5 relegations. Between 99 and 2002 they jumped 3 divisions up, Ever since they've been in the Prem.

They were probably regarded as a big club still due to their past and the number of fans they had including the number who came to games - which remained high even in lower leagues. A little bit like Leeds in that respect.

Two sons (one adopted) did.

It's no doubt tricky with the pandemic limiting our resources, but long term I don't see why we shouldn't be able to build a team. If we compare to what Liverpool did under Klopp; his first summer they signed Mané (30m), Wijnaldum (23m) and Matip (free). Second summer they signed Salah (37m), Robertson (8m) and Oxlade-Chamberlain (35m).

To me, that looks doable - 2-3 first team players, with one of them being a cheaper option. I mean, money was tight already last summer, but we still signed Partey, Gabriel, Willian, Mari and Cédric. Don't se how we couldn't spend 60m in one summer, especially considering the players we can sell to raise funds.

Really Bernard? Remember the spuds game when he gifted them a goal after Lacazette scored? Kolasinac is very, very average and has an astronomical salary due to his free transfer. His future is the 2. Bundesliga with Schalke.

Yes, really. There’s no way he’s as bad as some make out. I do recall the mistake against Tottenham. I can’t remember a worse mistake he’s made in an Arsenal shirt so maybe it’s legitimate to call it a one off? As I said, he’s not brilliant. I don’t rate him that highly. But as a back up I do think he’s just about adequate.

Also, I wonder if people are exaggerating the money that can be saved on his salary. If he’s really on £100k a week, what makes everyone think he’ll go to Schalke for a fraction of that? Players have the power these days and if Arsenal want to get rid of him a year before his contract expires, I suspect they’ll have to pay him off with much of the difference between his Arsenal and Schalke salaries. As I’m pretty damn sure we had to do to get Özil to move to Fenerbahce six months before the expiry of his contract.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.footba ... 656147.amp

https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/football ... uel-azeez/

Didnt realise his contract was running out this summer. Cant lose this boy as well.

Of course, Shaun Wright-Phillips.

I think we'll do well against Benfica. Just an inkling. Storied club. I wish I was around for the days they were one of the best in Europe. Saw a few videos, heard a few stories. One of my best friends in LA and I are planning a trip to Lisbon. She's thinking of moving there permanently one day and I want to get the feel of the place. If I end up there I'm sure I'll be going to a few Sporting Lisbon, Benfica and even Porto matches. Especially in the Europa and CL games.

Ah...yes. We were linked to him off and on, weren't we? At that time we were pretty stacked. Not a bad player, a small and demure but decent player.
I met one City supporter years ago in LA. He was part owner I think of a bar/club I used to frequent once in a while. They weren't good then I recall. He and the guys from Oasis are the only people I've heard linked to them.

I can only imagine what Manchester must have been like in '67 and '68.

I suppose Luiz will start but I am always concerned when he is in the team. Should be an easy win really but let’s see how we set up.

Hi Gaz,

Why do you think it should be an easy win?

We have the away goal but home advantage is voided by it being at a neutral ground without fans and Benfica are no mugs. On their day they could trouble most teams so if we are not on our game anything could happen. It only takes an early sending off, some poor refereeing or bad defending or a couple of worldies from Benfica.

On the basis of the first leg I would expect us to progress but no two games are ever the same.

You've somehow managed there to sound like both Bernard and AG. I like it.

Clearly you didn't watch Arsenal in November.

The only possible advantage in today’s game formally being a home tie is scoring in the away leg. If Benfica score, that advantage disappears. If they score twice, it becomes a huge problem. The last thing this game represents is an easy tie. I make us favourites to progress, but that has more to do with my expectations of our players’ quality than anything else.

and with that away goals rule (which really should have been scrapped for neutral ground ties) it is unlikely that we're ever going to be in a 'comfortable' place during the game unless we get 3-0 up.
Its said 2-0 is always a dangerous lead, 1 goal back and their tails are up and then you know 1 more goal sends them through, not just stealing a point like a league game.

Wonder how many test matches are won (and lost) in less than two days? India beat England by ten wickets in the third test of the series just after the tea break on the second day.

The stories from Sammy 'The Bull' Gravano's podcasts are great!

I saw a list of them online (cant find them again) but in the history of all tests it was only about 25-30 matches concluded inside 2 days - a lot of those were in the 1800's and from memory there was only about 5 or 6 matches since the turn of the century decided in 2 days.

I suppose we are lucky to see any cricket at the moment, but that was a scandalous wicket for a Test match!

1Leno
2Bellerín
23David Luiz
6Gabriel
3Tierney
8Ceballos
34Xhaka
7Saka
11Ødegaard
32Smith Rowe
14Aubameyang

Substitutes
9Lacazette
12Willian
17Cédric Soares
18Partey
19Pépé
21Chambers
22Marí
25Elneny
30Nketiah
33Ryan
35Martinelli
44Hein

Sad to see no Balogun

He must be off.................