David Ornstein is suggesting Folarin Balogun could leave Arsenal this summer. He only has 12 months left on his current deal. Was only given an 18 month contract when he signed pro terms. The kids has scored bags and bags of goals for the youth teams. We turned down a £5m bid from Brentford in the winter.

Arsenal can't seem to work out what position the club sees themselves in. An absolute eleite level club who wouldn't let contracts constantly run down, or a second tier club who realise they won't always be able to keep hold or match the ambitions of their best players so ensures they are moved on at the right time for good money.

Malen, Gnabry, Reine-Adelaide would be worth a combined £150m at an estimate right now. Not one of them had a buy back or sell on clause.

Thanks. Hadn't realized it went that deep into 8th place. We should be able to squeak by the Blades but you never know.

Morning Rich. Many seem to see Ornstein in the context of whatever he says, happens. I’m a member of the AST. I didn’t go to many of their meetings before the lockdown (they’ve been done via zoom since, which I also haven’t bothered with).

Anyway, one I did go to in person had Ornstein as the guest speaker. I can’t recall the terminology used to introduce him, but it was something along those very lines. Little short of what he says about Arsenal is a guaranteed fact. This and other praise I’d seen of him made me do some research on his record for accuracy concerning Arsenal.

Assuming the stuff I read highlighting where he’d got things badly wrong were true, his reputation isn’t quite as deserved as some seem to automatically accept. I saw examples given where what he said had turned out to be completely off course from what did eventually transpire. Sadly I don’t recall these specific cases, but as long as what I’d read on his reports were right, it struck me that he is more than capable of getting things hopelessly wrong.

Look, it could well be that his record on Arsenal is better, even way better, than many journalists. My guess would be that he is, as surely his reputation must be based on something valid? But having said that, I saw enough from what I did read about him to strongly indicate that what he says isn’t always trustworthy. Maybe he isn’t as infallible as many appear to think?

Morning Rich

8th or 7th look the likeliest options and neither fills me with anything other than dread.

We'd be starting in the preliminary rounds so 2 or 3 weeks before the Prem kicks off. I think there are 2 or 3 Home & Away qualifier rounds before the proper Group games. We'd be schlepping around the poxiest backwaters of Europe - or bloody Asia - playing in empty stadiums with the barest of TV interest. Where's the financial incentive? What's the point?

I honestly think 9th or 10th would be far better for us.

I suppose it comes down to whether the guaranteed payday from being in the Europa League (£20-30m) is offset by any extra boost we get from not being in Europe at all? I doubt it considering each prem league spot only earns an extra £1-2m Then there is the factor of not being able to offer any European football at all.

I didn't watch all of the Newcastle v City game but I remember one completely uneventful moment that showed me the level of detail and discipline needed to get to the top. The Newcastle GK had the ball at his feet and Jesus closed him down to ensure he had to pick it up. Jesus stayed by the GK to ensure he had to kick it from his hands rather than the usual more accurate place kick, as soon as the ball left the GK Jesus sprinted 25 yards to get himself back onside so if City won the ball back he would be able to be immediately played through a high line. Nothing came of it but how many times do you see a striker jog back onside so that the first pass couldn't go to them as they still trundle back.

I read another piece about Liverpool and set-pieces when Klopp got his feet under the table. They worked out with Trent's delivery and Van Dijk's aerial threat they could and should be doing more. I think they now lead the league for set piece goals. Arsenal are 2nd only to Villa for set piece goals conceded.

https://www.goal.com/en/news/arsenal-to ... y2dpc3tcca
Arsenal to sell Folarin Balogun after contract talks break down with teenage striker

We have Martinelli, Nketiah and Nelson already in the first team squad with Smith-Rowe on loan and John-Jules also on the fringes. Yoh can throw Saka in there too as he looks like his future is as an attacker. Willock and Guendouzi are both very young. There are only so many you can keep, and if Balogun doesn't want to sign a contract, there's not much we can do about it.

We should finish ahead of Sheffield United, but the way we look these days, I am marginally confident. I want to for Arteta as much as I want for the club and us fans.
I was very skeptical of him during the search that got us Emery. However, i can see why Pep valued him so much.

Then play a reserve team. Give the young ones some experience.

But it isn't just about the strain on the players GF. Even if it's only the Kids, the Club's travelling party is enormous with management, coaches, physios, kit-men...the list goes on and they'd all be gone maybe twice in the pre-season period in some faraway town for 3 or 4 days . It's an unnecessary and pointless distraction to the whole club and it risks screwing up up the preparations for the season.

6 games before the Group stages (3 before the Prem kick-off in recent seasons) and then another 6 games up to Christmas - 12 games in all and there won't be one that's worth crossing the road for.

I personally hate the whole Europa Cup competition. I have nothing against the minnows of European football - good luck to 'em - but I do not want to watch 'em. And I'm not alone. Regardless of Covid 19, the stadium will be empty for the pre-qualifying games and at best half full for the Group games (assuming we qualify). I object to those games being part of my season ticket.

Each age group will have a player to get excited about, a player who is not only the best at the club but is comparable to any talent at any club at the same age. From what I've read from those who watch a lot more youth football than me is Balogun was that player. Plenty of non strikers listed above which shouldn't have any bearing on whether we keep Balogun. We potentially have Aubamayang and lacazette leaving this summer. Of course you can't force a young player to sign a new deal but when you have special talent you do everything possible, perhaps a longer initial deal that the standard 18 month first pro contract or more involvement in first team training.
We turned down £5m for him in the winter I don't know if we would get that much more for him now. For someone with his talent it is poor money and due to another contract being run down.

Seen a lot of praise for Tierney over the past few games. Such an injury hit interrupted first season with us but there is a lot to admire about the raw attributes and attitude Tierney displays on the pitch. Strange to think there were rumours linking him with a transfer to Leicester if Chilwell was sold. I think Tierney could be a big player for us next season. Strikes me as a consistent competitor with very few weaknesses in his game.

If Aubameyang or Lacazette leave, we will need to buy a replacement, not hand their place in the squad to a kid who has never played for the first team. We already have a very young squad, which is why those young players I mentioned are relevant. You need a mix. We all, naturally, want to see our academy players make the first team, but for various reasons it doesn't work out for most of them. The reports indicate that he isn't prepared to sign the contract on offer. So he's not prepared to even give it more time to try to break into the first team squad at Arsenal. Fair enough. It is his decision. Also, it's worth pointing out that Martinelli is only two weeks older than Balogun.

Arsenal supposedly lining up Brazilian physio Bruno Mazziotti from PSG to replace Chris Morgan who is returning to Liverpool. If you google Bruno Mazziotti he doesn't look like someone who is going to tolerate any sitting out due to small niggles or players not going the extra mile!

Presumably the away league game at Villa will be played sometime like Wed 22 then? Arsenal site not showing the match in their fixture list yet.

I think we can afford to lose Lacazette next season and rely on Aubameyang and our young forwards. But it seems like we might lose Aubameyang instead? Wonder if we could interest someone like Richarlison, fairly established young forward in early 20s, to join us.

If Aubameyang won’t extend his contract, he surely has to be sold? The club cannot afford to let him leave for nothing next year. If he won’t sign a new contract, and there’s little to suggest he will, I have to support any decision to sell him at the end of the season. The issue is complicated by his wage demands and age. He’s 31 so will very, very soon be past his peak. He might even be now. To pay Özil type wages to a player going downhill isn’t a sensible option in my view.

50m for Aubameyang? Who can we get as replacement for 50m?

We’ll have a damn site more chance of replacing him this summer with £50m than we’ll have of replacing him adequately next summer when he’ll be able to go for nothing.

I will bet that other clubs are talking 20mil

I agree.

It was a genuine question. Who do you think could be a realistic replacement for Aubameyang?

Richarlison was linked with Barcelona in the winter window for £80m. We can’t afford deals like that

We won’t get anyone as good as Aubameyang for the price we have to sell him for this summer. That’s the cost of letting players run their contracts down.
We have to sell though because finding a replacement for £50m this summer is a lot easier than finding a replacement for £0 next summer.
We’ll get ridiculed again for selling a top star and the contract issue but it is the only sensible decision the club can make.
If we can’t replace Aubameyang with the money we sell him for then we invest in a younger striker with potential and use more of the money to bring in quality players in other areas of the team.

Hi Goonie,

Sadly, I do not think we will get £50m for Aubameyang. The effects of Covid-19, his age and the fact he only has 1 year left on his contract suggest a much lower valuation. Perhaps as low as £25m depending on the level of interest.

Hi Rich,

Players like Balogun should be signed on long term deals and then sent on loan until they are ready for first team involvment (if ever). Experience of first team football elswhere not only gives them an indication of what life is like in lower leagues when points and livelihoods are at stake, toughening them up, but generally it also enhances their value. It's a win win situation, either they come back and are ready to be involved at Arsenal or they are sold for a reasonable fee.

Look at Chelsea, most of their loaness never even play for the club but are sent out on loan, sold for large fees and the money re-invested.

https://thisisfutbol.com/2020/06/blogs/ ... one-mings/
The Athletic’s James McNicholas would like to see Arsenal sign Aston Villa defender Tyrone Mings in the event the Villans are relegated back to the Championship

There has been lots of transfer speculation surrounding Arsenal but amongst the hype one story from a few weeks ago sticks in my mind. It said that having asked the players to take a wage cut as a result of Covid-19 the club see it as hypocritical to then spend big on transfer fees. Thus free transfers, budget deals and swap deals are more likely than any big name signings.

Of course that could change if several sales are made bringing in large fees but I would say do not get carried away with thoughts of major deals, especially if we don't make europe at all.

Hi AG,

I've always quite liked Mings. He's left footed and looks much more mobile than Mari so I wouldn't mind him at all.

Having bought Mari I doubt we'd be in for him though.

Mings would be very expensive. With your post about the club’s intention to not spend big on new players in order to avoid looking hypocritical after persuading players to take pay cuts (sounds a very convenient excuse), I’d say the chances of signing Mings look slimmer than someone who has suffered with anorexia for twenty years.

Hello Soc,
Someone's wishful thinking. No interest from Arsenal as far as I know.

If it’s your wishful thinking, you presumably believe Mings would be a good partner to play alongside your girlfriend’s bit on the side then?

I agree, I've not seen enough from Mings to suggest he's what we need and I could almost guarantee that for the price that will be quoted there would be 20 better non-english centre-backs who could be purchased for half the price. I bet even if Villa went down they'd be asking for £40m for Mings. They want £80m for Grealish and teams seem willing to enter a dialogue at that!

With Luiz here for another year, Mari signed up, Saliba coming in, and Mustafi, Holding, Sokratis, Chambers, Mavropanos all still on the books I fear that Arsenal won't buy a CB and will concentrate on a central mid, defensive and creative.
Luiz,Saliba,Mari are staying, Chambers is going nowhere due to his injury. I think you'd need to see Arsenal sell probably 3 of the other 4 before we buy another CB.

We did somehow buy Pépé for 70+m. Another striker linked is Dembele of Lyon. His stats not as impressive as Lacazette's when he was at Lyon.

I suppose we could try with Lacazette and the young forwards next season. Pépé must be contributing more as well.

Hi Soc. Gaz said something similar, about 20m as well. Supposedly Franck Kessie can be bought for about 25m. A bit of Frimpong about him. We could do with another tank in the team.

Maybe an interest again a year later in Wilfried Zaha possibly. But CP may want more than the £40m price from last year.

Difficult to know what to expect from transfers. Some clubs taking advantage of lower demand, like Chelsea, some clubs tightening the belt, we’ve asked players to take a pay cut and signed lots of contract deals. I’m sure from the clubs point of view news signings include Saliba, Soares and Mari. Which they sort of do, 100% we won’t buy unless we sell.

What happens in the following scenario?
Top 4 is liverpool, City, Leicester, Wolves
Man U win the Europa league and come 5th
Does it mean the team coming 6th would go in to the champions league of City are banned?

A good friend of mine was a Westham supporter so I often used to discuss the club with him. It struck me for many years that Westham continually purchased players who were in pre-retirement employment. They would never put in the effort for the whole season, knew they would not win honours and in the really bad years they flirted with or were relegated. They did not believe. Shredded some managers and really were just their for the wages. The young upcoming players can't wait to leave but there isn't many of them. Wilshire is the classic recent example.

Everton were a very similar club in both recruitment and what they achieved.

It strikes me : that is now us. We buy players like Sokrates, Luiz, Soares, Aubameyang, Mkh, Lacazette and keep Özil. We don't make the hard decisions and we have the distinction from the other teams of overpaying by large amounts and boosting the pension funds. Keeping Luiz and Ceballos is beyond explanation. If I see Willian mentioned it really signals the end.

Edu was very careful to point out it was him and Arteta who kept Luiz and the others. Arteta will be responsible. Given, unlike Emery, the manager has a say I will be looking with interest at our signings.

Will we get more overpaid pensioners. If the culture of the club is truly to change, this cannot continue.