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Post #471521  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 9:26 am 
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Hazuki wrote:

:laughing7:

Wot a prat


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Post #471522  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 9:26 am 
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TOP GUN wrote:
I'm voting labour. I flirted with the idea of voting Tory out of frustration and in protest at labours tactics, certain policies and stance and the way Corbyn has approached certain things.

However, The tories are utterly despicable and no matter how frustrating Corbyn is at least you know he's a good person.

The tories are an utter disease, their ludicrous deal they did with the gutter press around avoiding Leveson part two in exchange for basically murdoch and Dacre calling Corbyn a terrorist for 2 full months is as low as it gets.

Nope labour it is even though I know full well they will get trounced.


Well done! Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour team have run an excellent and inspiring campaign. I'm still hoping for a shock result tonight, even if it looks unlikely.

Decaf, the Irish (in Ireland) cannot vote for Labour. They do not organise here.

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Post #471523  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 9:28 am 
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old man of hoy wrote:
At a time of trouble it will be no surprise if voters look to the safe option of the Tories.

Don't understand this reaction at all (though I know that's the way it plays across the water). It happened on their watch and May has been caught out rightly over her police cuts.

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Post #471524  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 9:35 am 
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TOP GUN wrote:
Hazuki wrote:

:laughing7:

Wot a prat

Wenger should start using that hashtag though.


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Post #471525  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 9:39 am 
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Let's get to the bottom of the key issue though folks. Totally nanny state

http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsbeat/article/4 ... sful-pilot

The rise in drug-related deaths at music festivals and nightclubs is a growing problem for policy makers, health authorities and events companies alike," says Shirley Cramer, the chief executive of RSPH.

However let's keep selling weapons to the Saudis and letting their loonie imans preach hate in the uk.


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Post #471526  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 9:40 am 
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Niall wrote:
TOP GUN wrote:
I'm voting labour. I flirted with the idea of voting Tory out of frustration and in protest at labours tactics, certain policies and stance and the way Corbyn has approached certain things.

However, The tories are utterly despicable and no matter how frustrating Corbyn is at least you know he's a good person.

The tories are an utter disease, their ludicrous deal they did with the gutter press around avoiding Leveson part two in exchange for basically murdoch and Dacre calling Corbyn a terrorist for 2 full months is as low as it gets.

Nope labour it is even though I know full well they will get trounced.


Well done! Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour team have run an excellent and inspiring campaign. I'm still hoping for a shock result tonight, even if it looks unlikely.

Decaf, the Irish (in Ireland) cannot vote for Labour. They do not organise here.
Thanks Niall. I didn't know that.

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Post #471527  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 9:40 am 
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Niall wrote:
old man of hoy wrote:
At a time of trouble it will be no surprise if voters look to the safe option of the Tories.

Don't understand this reaction at all (though I know that's the way it plays across the water). It happened on their watch and May has been caught out rightly over her police cuts.


Maybe it's because Corbyn appeared on platforms with terrorists - including one on the run - boasted about opposing every anti-terror measure put to parliament, said that he opposed all cuts to spending apart from to the military, described the shooting of bin Laden as a tragedy and has among his top advisers men like Milne who took the opportunity the day after 9/11 to attack the Americans, like McDonnell who hymned the bombs and bullets of IRA "martyrs" and like the Stalinist Andrew Murray who has expressed support for People's North Korea. Whose supporters stalk the internet with their Che Guevara avatars berating "Zionists" and "Red Tories".

You may want to argue that some of these positions are correct or more nuanced than presented - although I am fairly sceptical of such claims - but the idea that everything about Corbyn's dubious past and associates is simply a lie from the Tory press is sadly not true.


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Post #471528  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 9:43 am 
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Niall wrote:
old man of hoy wrote:
At a time of trouble it will be no surprise if voters look to the safe option of the Tories.

Don't understand this reaction at all (though I know that's the way it plays across the water). It happened on their watch and May has been caught out rightly over her police cuts.


Corbyns communication admittedly hasn't been good enough on the issue in my opinion and overrides the tories cuts and negligence. Terrorism clearly is a weak spot for Jezza.

His wishy washy comments on shoot to kill for example was daft and I'm more than aware he's a man of love more than hate.


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Post #471529  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 9:44 am 
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Decaf wrote:
old man of hoy wrote:
It feels to me as if Theresa May will end up benefiting from a situation she would never have wanted, namely the two terrorist attacks. She was looking wobbly before those atrocities, which completely overshadowed the election campaign. At a time of trouble it will be no surprise if voters look to the safe option of the Tories. Say what you want about Labour, but I have enjoyed a campaign about more social equality, and at last hearing a leader interested in the views of young people.

Maybe I'm too much of a cynic. But I question the assumption that politicians really care and aren't in fact secretly rejoicing when the *%^@ hits the fan in a way that is electorally beneficial ... especially conservative politicians who display no other signs of really caring.


Do you think it works the other way also - just for consistency sake - and that left wing "anti-imperialists" get a secret thrill from casualty figures from places like Iraq?


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Post #471530  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 9:48 am 
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TOP GUN wrote:
I'm more than aware he's a man of love more than hate.


Oh I wouldn't be so sure about that - very much depends on who the object of his attention is.


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Post #471531  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 9:48 am 
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Costa out of Chelsea possibly? The plot thickens.

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Post #471532  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 9:53 am 
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Imo Corbyn's policies are excellent in the main and if I thought he could fund it without bankrupting the country even more than it is I would have voted for him.

May got my vote for Brexit, the sooner it happens the better, but some of her policies like Health, Social Care and fox hunting I am completely oppposed to.


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Post #471533  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 9:58 am 
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bubblechris wrote:
Imo Corbyn's policies are excellent in the main and if I thought he could fund it without bankrupting the country even more than it is I would have voted for him.


Wait...I thought you did?


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Post #471534  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 10:08 am 
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TOP GUN wrote:
Niall wrote:
Don't understand this reaction at all (though I know that's the way it plays across the water). It happened on their watch and May has been caught out rightly over her police cuts.


Corbyns communication admittedly hasn't been good enough on the issue in my opinion and overrides the tories cuts and negligence. Terrorism clearly is a weak spot for Jezza.

His wishy washy comments on shoot to kill for example was daft and I'm more than aware he's a man of love more than hate.


I agree it was one of his weaker positions (along with the nukes - even though I agree with him) however "shoot to kill" should only be used when there is no alternative and lives are at risk.

Shoot to kill was used in the past to murder unarmed people who could have been arrested. I think Corbyn was on point on that one - I guess not many of the electorate would be aware of the shoot to kill policy implemented in Ireland and wouldn't really care about it at the minute given the terrible events over the weekend...It's very easy for a Tory PM to say shoot to kill w/o discussing the legalities around it during an election campaign.

In fact, Daz, I don't think your list of complaints had much impact on the campaign for the ordinary punter.

For me, May's police cuts and the insightful video of the police guy calling the govt liars highlighted the Tories poor record on security. It's unfortunate that some could feel in-clarity of communication overrides the actual harm of May's decision to continue cutting the police and the Tories negligence on the issue.

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Post #471535  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 10:12 am 
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Niall wrote:
In fact, Daz, I don't think your list of complaints had much impact on the campaign for the ordinary punter.


Totally disagree. I certainly think the idea that he is weak on national security has had a massive impact and will do so today which is why the Tories and the media will bang on about it until the last moment. Hopefully, the better elements of Labour's manifesto for which I think many are genuinely desperate for will prevail over that.


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Post #471536  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 10:17 am 
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Niall wrote:

Shoot to kill was used in the past to murder unarmed people who could have been arrested. I think Corbyn was on point on that one - I guess not many of the electorate would be aware of the shoot to kill policy implemented in Ireland...


That is obviously and understandably on your mind and was certainly on Corbyn's given his pretty unconditional support for the armed struggle over John Hume and the SDLP in favour of those who also didn't hesitate to shoot to kill from the republican side - or kidnap-and-torture to kill or bomb to kill for that matter.

But it showed total ineptitude to allow that thought to prevail when being asked about the entirely separate issue of Islamist terrorists. The moment he hesitated on shoot-to-kill for those in the streets wearing suicide belts or hacking random defenceless young women with knives or blowing up children at pop concerts, he ALLOWED that narrative to develop. That is why for me he is unfit to lead the Labour Party because his mind is still rooted in CND, Troops Out etc. It was a totally unnecessary gift to his opponents and one - partly due to his arrogance - he is prepared to make every time whatever the consequences for his party.


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Post #471537  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 10:22 am 
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Daz wrote:
Niall wrote:
In fact, Daz, I don't think your list of complaints had much impact on the campaign for the ordinary punter.


Totally disagree. I certainly think the idea that he is weak on national security has had a massive impact and will do so today which is why the Tories and the media will bang on about it until the last moment. Hopefully, the better elements of Labour's manifesto for which I think many are genuinely desperate for will prevail over that.


Well we'll see. If he polls higher than 2010 (29%) and 2015 (31%) then it will be clear his campaign on social equality (etc) was effective and that the national security issue (whilst I accept he was perceived as weak by a section of the electorate who possibly would never vote labour anyway) was not of great importance in the round.

More important factors Labour are battling against is the rise of nationalism in both England and Scotland imo - which often overrides social concerns.

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Post #471538  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 10:27 am 
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Niall wrote:
whilst I accept he was perceived as weak by a section of the electorate who possibly would never vote labour anyway


You're talking about Labour heartland voters, Niall!!!! Many of the people who perceive Corbyn as unpatriotic and weak on national security are precisely those who have historically voted Labour and have recently defected first to UKIP and now to the Tories.

Worryingly for Labour they are now vulnerable in the cities of the West Midlands and North East where they lost the metro mayor elections.


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Post #471539  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 10:28 am 
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Niall wrote:
Well we'll see. If he polls higher than 2010 (29%) and 2015 (31%) then it will be clear his campaign on social equality (etc) was effective and that the national security issue (whilst I accept he was perceived as weak by a section of the electorate who possibly would never vote labour anyway) was not of great importance in the round.


Why will it show that?


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Post #471540  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 10:36 am 
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Daz wrote:
Niall wrote:
Well we'll see. If he polls higher than 2010 (29%) and 2015 (31%) then it will be clear his campaign on social equality (etc) was effective and that the national security issue (whilst I accept he was perceived as weak by a section of the electorate who possibly would never vote labour anyway) was not of great importance in the round.


Why will it show that?


Miliband had no such "baggage" and he'll have increased the vote share.
And wouldn't you say many of those who switched to UKIP were more concerned about Brexit than what Corbyn said in Ireland in 1980?

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Post #471541  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 10:44 am 
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Niall wrote:
Daz wrote:

Why will it show that?


Miliband had no such "baggage" and he'll have increased the vote share.
And wouldn't you say many of those who switched to UKIP were more concerned about Brexit than what Corbyn said in Ireland in 1980?


That doesn't mean national security not an issue. It means that with the same domestic policies and a leader not encumbered with worries over their record on national security, Labour might have won this time.

I think those who perceive Corbyn negatively - and for most of those who do so it is because of a generalised sense that he is anti-British and weak on terror - are those who once belonged to Labour's core constituency and not as you claim unlikely ever to vote Labour.

The national vote share is a total irrelevance until we have PR or a Presidential system.

Corbyn is pro-Brexit and always has been.


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Post #471542  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 11:08 am 
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I'm agreeing with you that Corbyn was perceived as weak on national security by a section of the electorate. However, for many of the electorate who will vote Labour today in favour of their vision of the future of the UK; this was by far not the most important issue. That could be as much as 35% of the people who vote today.

In the two recent Labour leadership elections, the candidates opposing Corbyn were unable to inspire members of their own party, let alone look to be in a position to put together an appealing manifesto for this election. The right of the Labour party has nothing to offer.

With English and Scottish nationalism in play, Labour faced a very tough proposition to return to power regardless of who the leader was.The capture of Scotland by the SNP and the fact that the Conservatives are now seen by those who switched to UKIP in England as the ones most likely to deliver them the Brexit deal they want are huge impediments given there is at least a base 35% of the population Tory leaning in the first place.

Those who put national security at the top of their list when considering who to vote for, I would reckon a good fair number of them would not be traditional Labour voters. Not all, of course some Labour people have defected on that, I am sure you are correct, but it remains to be seen if this was a significant number put off by perceived weakness or the simple fact they preferred the Tory policies (if you can find one).

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Post #471543  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 11:28 am 
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MORI final poll Tory 8 point lead. 44/36

Watch the key marginals though - they're all that really matter.


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Post #471544  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 11:35 am 

Daz wrote:
Think May's toast in the long run - the Tories have long memories and she has been unremittingly shite in this campaign.

Fully agree. I'll be very surprised if May isn't still the Prime Minister after this election. But one thing the Tory Party is very good at, meaning ruthless, is getting rid of Party leaders who are electoral liabilities. Even if she wins this election, I think May's days are numbered.


  
 
 
Post #471545  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 11:53 am 
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Daz wrote:
MORI final poll Tory 8 point lead. 44/36

Watch the key marginals though - they're all that really matter.

Quote:
In 2015 the Conservatives won with a seven-point lead, but so distorted is our electoral system that the Electoral Reform Society says if just 639 voters in only six Tory seats had switched their vote from Tory to Labour, there would have been a hung parliament. Just 639!
Guardian

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Post #471546  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 12:09 pm 
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Daz wrote:
Niall wrote:
In fact, Daz, I don't think your list of complaints had much impact on the campaign for the ordinary punter.


Totally disagree. I certainly think the idea that he is weak on national security has had a massive impact and will do so today which is why the Tories and the media will bang on about it until the last moment. Hopefully, the better elements of Labour's manifesto for which I think many are genuinely desperate for will prevail over that.


There's no way he can implement all the policies in the first five years and I believe that is what people are mistakenly expecting. He should have said which he would do in the first five years and which would follow and when.


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Post #471547  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 12:14 pm 
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My strong expectation from travelling the country and talking to campaigners is that Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband’s vote share in 2015 and may even match Tony Blair’s in 2005. But I also think that these extra voters are insufficiently distributed thanks to first past the post, and that the party will lose significant numbers of seats.

This is great if politics is an argument in the pub. But the blunt truth is that Labour would swap Ed Miliband’s 31 per cent for Gordon Brown’s 28 per cent in a heartbeat, as that 28 per cent delivered 40 Scottish Labour MPs and a hung parliament.

It feels to me that once again, Labour will have gained voters while moving further away from office.


****

Wise words from Stephen Bush in the New Statesman and this is exactly what I fear and why national share of the vote utterly irrelevant.

If Labour increases its share of the vote in a target marginal seat to the winning Tory candidate's 2015 + 1 vote this should be theoretically great unless the Tory also increases their share of the vote (exactly what looks like happening) in which case they have still lost a seat they must gain in order to form a government.

Equally if the Tories increase their share of the vote by more than Labour in a Labour held marginal then Labour can lose the seat even while performing better than 2015 in terms of vote share.

This is what I fear might happen tonight so that even if Labour increase their national vote on 2015 and even if they increase their vote in some marginals, they will still lose.

Which is why, for me, it is imperative to have a leader who can also appeal to waverers in marginals who are not angry, left-behind or any of that stuff but want a competent government with a social conscience who they trust to protect them.

Feeling good about election campaigns is total bollocks. There is no such thing as a good defeat to the Tories. When they win they implement their programme with plenty of U turns but also brutal consistency. You can feel good about the way in which you lost and proud of your campaign until you're blue in the face. Literally.


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Post #471548  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 12:34 pm 
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Watching the England u20s drawing with italy u20s...England totally on top, but 1-1...the ref proving that all nations need video assistance for officials...really basic mistakes....

now 2-1 England...

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Post #471549  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 1:09 pm 
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Is Mahrez a suitable replacement if Sanchez is sold (to City)? How much will Sanchez fetch if sold?
http://metro.co.uk/2017/06/08/arsenal-w ... t-6694578/

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Post #471550  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 1:12 pm 
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Daz wrote:
Decaf wrote:
Maybe I'm too much of a cynic. But I question the assumption that politicians really care and aren't in fact secretly rejoicing when the *%^@ hits the fan in a way that is electorally beneficial ... especially conservative politicians who display no other signs of really caring.


Do you think it works the other way also - just for consistency sake - and that left wing "anti-imperialists" get a secret thrill from casualty figures from places like Iraq?

Indeed. But even more subtlely, lefties are genuinely put out by 'acts of terrorism', not because they care about the sods who die, but because it plays into the narrative.

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Post #471551  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 1:12 pm 
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Daz wrote:
Decaf wrote:
:laughing7: :laughing7:
All the best to all in the UK for the elections.


We're gonna need it. Big Tory win because Corbyn might push up national share a bit by doing well among the converted in Liverpool and Gateshead but lose key marginals. UKIP vote goes almost entirely to Tories. Waveres go Tory because he's seen as weak on national security and prioritising "human rights" over fighting terror (he obligingly walked straight into the obvious Tory trap on that one).

Unless young people turn out in droves which frankly I doubt.

Worst Tory candidate and campaign in decades probably going to be rewarded with a thumping majority.


Sadly I think you are right...this election will just go to further demonstrate the social divisions in this country while reminding us how our voting system is no longer fit for purpose. There'll be parts of London that will be 75% Labour and it won't mean a thing.

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Post #471552  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 1:15 pm 
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Daz wrote:
Decaf wrote:

Bear in mind that the world is watching and praying that you are not as foolish as the yanks. We have some faith regarding the Welsh, Irish and Scottish voters and some optimism regarding the English.


Tories are second to the SNP in Scotland. Far from turning things round there, it's got worse.

I consider myself a socialist but I don't even know what to hope for today. I think a Corbyn victory (not going to happen anyway) would be a disaster on it's own terms. They are simply not competent enough to deal with the inevitable political and economic crises and actually I don't trust them on national security - it's not just the Mail scaremongering. There are some proper nutters in that camp. Milne, McDonnell, Murray etc are neither effective politicians nor morally trustworthy. They will befriend the most bankrupt, corrupt and reactionary forces as long as they are "anti-West". They will support torturers, terrorists and dictators. They will appear on the TV channels of regimes that hang people for being gay. They count as supporters people who do not believe in parliamentary democracy. Sadly I think somebody like Andy Burnham or Yvette Cooper could have taken the decentish domestic policies in the manifesto Labour have and pushed May really close but we'll never know for sure. All Labour's popular politicians are on the moderate left of the party.

The problem is: you can be as "principled" as you like. If you don't win in places like Nuneaton and Harlow you're *%^@** and all you have is "purity". It';s not about going back to Blair - he's a busted flush, or "neo-liberalism" whatever that means these days. It's about rebuilding a coalition that can reconnect with different elements of the electorate. Labour had 50% of the vote in Harlow in 1997, last election it was on 30%. That's not down to one cause but one thing is for certain I would be very very surprised if Corbyn pushes it back up. So what are you left with? A warm glow as you remember the principled defeat while the Tories are privatising what's left of the NHS and closing down the Sure Start programme?


Sadly, too many of the current Labour front bench have a martyrdom fixation. They'd rather be 'right' than have the power to do anything.

I'm still hoping for a hung parliament (still a long shot) and letting the horse trading begin...

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Post #471553  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 1:19 pm 
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AmericanGooner wrote:
Is Mahrez a suitable replacement if Sanchez is sold (to City)? How much will Sanchez fetch if sold?
http://metro.co.uk/2017/06/08/arsenal-w ... t-6694578/


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Post #471554  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 1:32 pm 
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Pics of long queues of young people at the polls in the Guardian.... :53big-emoticons:

http://www.wired.co.uk/article/election ... ive-winner

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Post #471555  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 1:33 pm 

Abu wrote:
AmericanGooner wrote:
Is Mahrez a suitable replacement if Sanchez is sold (to City)? How much will Sanchez fetch if sold?
http://metro.co.uk/2017/06/08/arsenal-w ... t-6694578/

knobber

Why does he keep asking all these questions when he's supposedly blocked many of the people on the forum? So if they did bother replying, he wouldn't see it.


  
 
 
Post #471556  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 2:29 pm 
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Just like my response to the ST email where I lasted a full day before renewing, there I was at 07:05 this morning putting my cross for Labour, just as I have at every election, national or local, that there’s been since I reached the age of majority.

It’s been an odd campaign though. Despite having all the press barons on her side and with all the advantages of a slick and well-funded organisation, May comes across as a stumbling mumbling and confused old biddy who flipped and flopped her way through what looked like a personal waking nightmare. As that poster summed up her and her campaign ‘Strong and Stable – My Arse’.

In contrast, old cold Jezza seemed to relish it all and positively grew in substance, stature and popularity. I’m pretty certain he hasn’t done enough and I still believe he’s a fatally flawed politician, but if it hadn’t been for that daft old bat Dianne Abbott’s asinine performances at crucial times, who knows what might have been possible.

Of course the terrorist incidents had an enormous influence but even then, I was really hoping that someone would properly open up the Brexit debate and we’d get a discourse going on the world of detail that’s been so blatantly and wilfully ignored. I really hoped we’d get some idea of the way forward and what we're in for rather than all this bollocks of ‘not showing our hand too early’.

To get an idea of just how deep in the *%^@ I believe we are over Brexit, read this if you will. It's a piece by Will Hutton from Sunday’s Observer. Hutton is a political economist, an occasional journalist and is currently Master of Hertford College, Oxford.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/03/britain-being-led-to-epic-act-self-harm-brexit

And weep.


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Post #471557  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 3:17 pm 
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That Hutton article is brilliant DHD. Brexit is a disaster that won't be fully recognised until it's far too late. There will be denial, accusations towards the remainers, but ultimately, we are shafted.

Anyway, I have been out and voted Labour and have also spent this week canvassing on the doorstep for our local party. I spent my lunch hour today at the local branch office helping out at the phone bank. I do think it's not going to be enough but, like you DHD, I feel Corbyn has had an excellent campaign and has grown as it has gone on. He has impressed me over the last few weeks. Whatever happens it has been great to see the young becoming engaged and enthused, this can only bode well for the future.

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Post #471558  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 3:24 pm 
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DHD - This is another great Brexit piece.
https://musealoudblog.wordpress.com/2017/06/06/brexit-traitors/

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Post #471559  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 4:01 pm 
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Brilliant, Darren, I don't think I have seen a more fickle commentator on anything than you. You make flip-flops look like DMs.

And I say this as one who thinks changing one's stance is often a good thing.


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Post #471560  Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 4:06 pm 
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I voted Lib Dem by the way as anything else was throwing my vote away but off now to neighbouring constituency which is very narrowly held Labour marginal to help out. Reports I'm getting from my Lib Dem/Tory marginal btw is that it is really really close (the constituency not the national vote about which I haven't a clue...)


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